Republicans' Push to Exclude Noncitizens: Impact Minimal Says Study

A study reveals minimal impact of including noncitizens in census apportionment, affecting few House seats and Electoral College votes. Despite negligible effects, Republicans argue for exclusion to benefit political influence. Recent moves include legislation and lawsuits, harking back to Trump's attempts to alter census counting. Research suggests minimal shifts in historical apportionment outcomes.

A recent study has shown that including individuals without permanent legal status in U.S. census apportionment figures has had a minimal impact on the distribution of congressional seats and Electoral College votes. The research, conducted by demographers from the University of Minnesota and the Centre for Migration Studies of New York, examined outcomes from the last four decades.

According to the study, excluding noncitizens could have shifted no more than two House seats and three Electoral College votes between 1980 and 2020. The findings arrive amidst a renewed Republican push to exclude individuals in the U.S. illegally from census counts used for apportionment, a move they argue would enhance Republican influence.

Legal and political battles continue, as Republican lawmakers and state attorneys general have pursued both legislation and lawsuits to amend the current approach to census counting. Despite limited historical evidence of significant shifts, the debate remains contentious, with supporters and opponents keen to assert the broader implications of census policy decisions.

(With inputs from agencies.)