Lula Poised for Victory in 2026: Poll Insights

A recent Quaest poll suggests that Brazilian President Lula da Silva would win runoffs in the 2026 elections against Tarcisio de Freitas and Flavio Bolsonaro. The poll, which interviewed 2,004 individuals, indicated Lula's strong lead in both first-round and potential run-off scenarios.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva appears set for a triumph if he runs in the 2026 elections, according to a newly released Quaest poll.

The findings reveal Lula would secure victories against both Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in hypothetical run-off scenarios.

The poll, commissioned by brokerage Genial and conducted between December 11-14 with 2,004 respondents, highlights Lula commanding 41% of the vote in the first round compared to Bolsonaro's 23% and Freitas's 10%. In a direct face-off, Lula defeats Bolsonaro 46%-36% and Freitas 45%-35%, with a margin of error of two percentage points.