Lula Dominates Potential 2026 Runoff Against Right-Wing Challengers

President Lula da Silva is poised to outperform right-wing opponents in a 2026 runoff, according to a recent poll. Governor Tarcisio de Freitas and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro trail behind in voter support. Lula leads both in first-round scenarios and potential second-round face-offs, with slight approval rating growth.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is predicted to surpass all potential right-wing challengers in a 2026 runoff, an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll revealed on Thursday. This includes Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro.

Investors were closely watching the polls following former President Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement of his son, which led to a downturn in Brazil's currency and equities. Many had anticipated that he would support a more market-friendly candidate like Freitas.

The poll indicated that in a first-round scenario, Lula would secure 48% of the votes compared to 21% for Flavio Bolsonaro and 15% for Freitas. Without Freitas in the race, Lula's support would remain at 48% against Flavio Bolsonaro's 29%, and without Flavio, Lula would lead with 49% against Freitas' 28%. Lula would also win in second-round scenarios against both opponents.

(With inputs from agencies.)