Lula's Lead in Brazil's Election Narrows

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads first-round scenarios for the upcoming election but his advantage over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro disappears in run-off scenarios. In simulated first-rounds, Lula secures 43-47%, while Bolsonaro garners 33-40%. Lula and Bolsonaro are nearly tied in run-offs.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is leading in all first-round scenarios for the October election, yet his edge over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro evaporates in potential run-offs, according to a new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll released Wednesday.

In simulated first-round matchups, Lula, a leftist, would capture between 43% and 47% of the vote against various opponents. Meanwhile, right-wing contender Flavio Bolsonaro is projected to secure between 33% and 40% in different scenarios.

However, the run-off paints a different picture, with Lula and Bolsonaro virtually tied at 46.2% and 46.3%, respectively. Notably, Lula's lead over the senator has decreased from previous polling figures, reflecting competitive dynamics as Brazil's electoral landscape evolves.