US Politics Newsletter - Trump’s big gamble

An audacious series of airstrikes in the ​heart of Iran by the U.S. and Israel killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and launched a conflict that is morphing ​so quickly and unpredictably that even veteran analysts say they can’t see the endgame. Here ‌in ​the U.S., as we head into Reuters Pharma USA, my colleagues and I will be pressing industry and policy leaders on key questions about drug prices, cutting-edge medicines and industry competition.

By Trevor Hunnicutt March 5 - Donald Trump once tried to play peacemaker, now he's U.S. commander-in-chief in a widening Middle East battle zone. An audacious series of airstrikes in the ​heart of Iran by the U.S. and Israel killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and launched a conflict that is morphing ​so quickly and unpredictably that even veteran analysts say they can't see the endgame.

Here ‌in ​the U.S., as we head into Reuters Pharma USA, my colleagues and I will be pressing industry and policy leaders on key questions about drug prices, cutting-edge medicines and industry competition. The event includes an in-depth interview with FTC Competition Director Daniel S. Guarnera, a Reuters Editors Briefing on Trump's remaking of U.S. health policy with yours truly, and a fireside chat with Genentech CEO ‌Ashley Magargee. When it comes to health policy, what are your questions? Submit them here.

In his 1987 book, "The Art of the Deal," then casino owner Trump claimed to have "never gambled in my life." Four decades later, as president, his risk tolerance seems to have shifted. Trump's decision to launch airstrikes against the theocratic rulers of Iran may be the biggest gamble of his political career yet. Nearly a week into military operations, Trump's endgame in Iran remains unclear after contradictory statements on issues ranging from the timeframe to who should govern Iran. Meanwhile, the ‌Iranian government is hanging on and lashing out in response. In an exclusive interview with Reuters' Steve Holland, Trump said the United States should have a role in choosing Iran's next leader. There are dozens of ways the conflict could go poorly for ‌Trump. Although he has suggested the fighting may be wrapped up by the time springtime cherry blossoms unfurl in the nation's capital, U.S. presidents from Lyndon Johnson to George W. Bush have gotten bogged down in military conflicts far longer than they first reckoned. Voters already say cost of living is their top concern. A conflict that sparks higher gas prices through the summertime driving season may leave citizens angry by the time they vote in November's congressional elections. Only one in four Americans approves of U.S. strikes on Iran that have plunged the Middle East into chaos, while about half believe Trump is too willing to use military force, ⁠Reuters/Ipsos polling shows. The ​conflict has also exposed rifts in the president's political base. Right-wing influencers ⁠from Tucker Carlson to Nick Fuentes, Adin Ross, Andrew Tate and Mike Cernovich all criticized the strikes, sparking a backlash from others who support the president's actions. Trump's shown no signs of self-doubt. Coming off his audacious operation to topple Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro, the president is feeling emboldened to tilt the geopolitical craps table ⁠to his advantage. The Supreme Court's decision on tariffs last month and Republicans' narrow congressional majority suggest Trump may have reached the extent of what he can do with executive power and conventional legislating. Presidents hemmed in by domestic political reality often adventure abroad.

Trump is attempting to shape a grand ​legacy. The Republican president rules by executive fiats, reshapes the capital's skyline and micromanages the Venezuelan government's oil sales. The possibility of knocking an archenemy off the map offers Trump the potentially irresistible opportunity to recast the narrative of an unpopular ⁠presidency. For Trump, that may be worth the gamble.

THE VIEW FROM MADRID: You would be forgiven for being surprised that Spain has become a flashpoint for diplomatic conflict with the United States. Yet the allied countries are in the midst of a spiraling dispute. Spain refused to let the U.S. military use its bases for missions ⁠targeting ​Iran. That angered Trump, who threatened to cut off all trade with the Western European country on Tuesday. "Spain has been terrible," Trump told reporters during a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. It's not the first time Madrid has landed in Trump's crosshairs: he's livid that the country has resisted his demands that all NATO members up their military spending. "We are certainly not going to be anybody's vassals, we won't tolerate any threats and we'll defend our values," Deputy Prime Minister Maria Jesus Montero told reporters. The ⁠UK also drew fire from Trump for withholding some support for the Iran strikes.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR: March 5: U.S. House set to vote on president's Iran war powers

March 6: Former presidents attend funeral for civil rights leader Jesse Jackson March 7: Trump ⁠expected to host Latin American and Caribbean leaders in Miami

March 10: Georgia's ⁠14th congressional district picks Marjorie Taylor Greene's replacement THE WHO, WHAT AND WHEN:

* Four takeaways from the first primaries of 2026 US midterm elections * Iran war: Answering readers' questions

* What are NATO's defence obligations under Articles 4 and 5 of its treaty? * How have US presidents tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve during war?

TOP US POLITICS HEADLINES: * US Senator Warren targets US ammunition sales linked to Mexican cartels

* Iran crisis tests ‌Trump standing with young men who helped power ‌2024 win * Trump undertakes sweeping makeover of White House and Washington

* New York Mayor Mamdani takes initial step on fulfilling promise for universal free ​childcare * Maps and charts of the Iran crisis

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