EXPLAINER-Israeli vote to dissolve parliament may bring elections forward

Israel's parliament is expected to vote on Wednesday on a bill to dissolve itself, potentially bringing forward by a ​few weeks the next national election, which surveys predict Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will lose. WHEN IS ​THE BALLOT?

Israel's parliament is expected to vote on Wednesday on a bill to dissolve itself, potentially bringing forward by a ​few weeks the next national election, which surveys predict Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will lose.

WHEN IS ​THE BALLOT? An election date is yet to be set. Israel ‌is ​supposed to hold elections every four years, but early elections have happened often. The last election was in November 2022 and the next ballot is due at the latest on October 27.

If the Knesset votes to dissolve, parliament members will then have to agree on a date. Political commentators in Israel say ‌an election is likely in the first half of September but it could also be held nearer to the late October deadline. WHY IS THE KNESSET VOTING TO DISBAND?

The vote is coming up now because an ultra-Orthodox Jewish faction, traditionally a close political ally of Netanyahu, announced this month that it no longer sees Netanyahu as a partner and will seek early elections. The ultra-Orthodox leaders said they were doing this because a coalition ‌promise to pass a law that would exempt their community from mandatory service in Israel's conscript military, was not being kept. At the same time, opposition parties have long sought to topple Netanyahu's government.

An ‌attempt to do so last June failed and success this time, even if it would only bring the election forward by a few weeks, could inject momentum into the opposition's campaign and limit the coalition's ability to promote any contentious legislation until then. In a bid to control the process, the coalition on May 13 submitted its own bill to dissolve the Knesset.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? If the bill passes the initial vote on the Knesset dissolving itself, it will go to committee, where an election date is agreed. ⁠It then goes ​back for final approval, with the third of three ⁠votes requiring a 61 majority of 120 Knesset members. The process could be swift or take many weeks.

WHAT DO THE POLLS SHOW? Less than a year after a 2022 political comeback at the head of Israel's most right-wing government ever, Netanyahu's security credentials ⁠were left in tatters by Hamas' surprise October 7 2023 attack.

Polls have since consistently shown Netanyahu's governing coalition falling far short of a parliament majority. However, there is also a chance opposition parties will fail to form a coalition, leaving ​Netanyahu at the head of an interim government until the political stalemate is broken. This has happened before. Before the 2022 election, Israel was caught in a series of inconclusive elections, holding ⁠five ballots in less than four years.

WHO'S RUNNING AGAINST NETANYAHU? Netanyahu's main challenger is Naftali Bennett, a former aide who ousted Israel's longest serving leader in a 2021 election and became prime minister himself.

The right-wing Bennett has joined forces with centre-left Opposition Head Yair Lapid to ⁠form ​new party 'Together', now neck-and-neck with Netanyahu's Likud. Another contender gaining in the polls is former military chief and centrist cabinet minister Gadi Eizenkot. They are all running on similar campaign platforms, seeking to mobilise swing voters disappointed by Netanyahu, with messages of healing divisions and getting the country back on track after the trauma of October 7 and wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran that have hit Israel's economy and international standing.

WHAT OTHER ⁠FACTORS ARE IN PLAY? Netanyahu still faces a long-running corruption trial and a bid by Israel's President Isaac Herzog to reach a plea deal in the case, which could see the 76-year-old Netanyahu retiring from ⁠politics as part of the deal.

Such a deal ⁠has been floated since his trial began six years ago, but it is unclear whether he would accept it. Netanyahu's health could also be an issue. He recently disclosed that he was successfully treated for prostate cancer and in 2023 he was fitted with a pacemaker.

Israel has also been at war with ‌Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and ‌Iran, fronts that remain volatile with possible impact on an election. (Additional reporting by Steven Scheer; Writing by ​Maayan Lubell; Editing by Rami Ayyub and Aidan Lewis)