Prashant Kishor associates with leaders, parties where he sees 'spark': Pradeep Gupta

Psephologist Pradeep Gupta credits poll strategist Prashant Kishor's successful predictions to his in-depth study of emerging trends and ability to identify potential leaders with a "spark".

Psephologist Pradeep Gupta has said poll strategist Prashant Kishor and his team associate themselves with leaders and parties in which they ''see a spark'', arguing that such political assessments are based on an understanding of emerging trends.

In an interview to PTI on Wednesday, Gupta, who runs Axis My India, said Kishor extensively studies political developments before deciding whom to work with.

''What Prashant Kishor or IPAC does is study the ground deeply. If they feel there is a spark in a leader or a party, they align with them professionally,'' he said.

Referring to Kishor's prediction made in early 2025 that actor-politician Vijay could emerge as the chief minister of Tamil Nadu, Gupta said the assessment was not merely a ''tukka'' (wild guess).

He noted that Kishor was engaged by DMK chief M K Stalin around five years ago and had closely tracked political developments in the state while working as his adviser.

At the time, Gupta said, considerable political space was opening up in Tamil Nadu after the AIADMK won consecutive Assembly elections in 2011 and 2016 under the late chief minister, J Jayalalithaa.

''Since his (Kishor) people were already present there, they could see that a leader (Vijay) was emerging. That is why he could make such a prediction,'' Gupta said.

He stressed that the credibility of political forecasts depends on the quality and depth of the information networks behind them.

''The point I want to make is that one must examine the source of information, how deep that source is, and the level of understanding behind a prediction. Those factors determine whether a prediction eventually turns into reality,'' Gupta said.