ANALYSIS-De La Espriella's win in Colombia cements Latin America's rightward shift

Colombia and Peru have joined a growing list of Latin American countries shifting to the right, with conservative leaders projected to win key presidential elections.

Colombia has swung to the right, electing nationalist lawyer and political newcomer Abelardo De La Espriella as president, ​accelerating a rightward shift rippling across Latin America. In Peru, where authorities have been slowly ‌counting contested ​ballots from the June 7 presidential runoff, conservative Keiko Fujimori is projected to win by just over 0.2%, securing the presidency after three failed attempts. Colombia and Peru now join Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia and Panama in moving rightward in a stark reversal of the region's so-called pink tide that brought several leftist governments to power in the early 2020s, including President Gustavo Petro, Colombia's first leftist president.

Under Colombian ‌law, a final verified count overseen by notaries and judges is required, and was nearly complete on Monday. It is unclear if it aligns fully with the initial count. Across the region, including in Colombia, weak economies and rising crime have reshaped voter priorities. Once fringe hard-right candidates have gained traction by promising crackdowns, amid a global rise of right-wing nationalism and a push by U.S. President Donald Trump to fight China's growing influence in Latin America and exert more U.S. control over the region. "This is an unusual alignment of the stars for Trump," said Steven Levitsky, professor ‌of Latin American Studies and government at Harvard University. "Rarely do you see a large number of governments as ideologically convergent as we're seeing now."

Over the past year, Trump has ordered strikes killing more than 150 people on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean, launched ‌a right-wing regional alliance dubbed the Shield of the Americas, and captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a raid on Caracas. Colombia's Petro has been Trump's most outspoken critic in the region, drawing threats of military action and sanctions. De La Espriella, by contrast, is a Trump fan. A naturalized U.S. citizen who lived in Miami, he has been a vocal supporter of Trump, and received his endorsement ahead of the runoff. He has vowed to join the Shield of the Americas, crack down on drug traffickers, ease business regulations, lower taxes and revive oil and gas projects halted under Petro. His victory comes as Colombia faces gas shortages and global energy markets are upended by the Iran ⁠war and the ​closure of the Strait of Hormuz. With vast oil reserves in Guyana and ⁠Venezuela — which Trump has promised to develop — and one of the world's largest shale formations in Argentina, experts say Latin America stands to gain as a global energy powerhouse. ECONOMIC, SECURITY CHALLENGES Right-wing leaders in Argentina, Chile,Peru and Colombia have gained support with promises of tax cuts, smaller government and looser mining and fossil fuel rules. However, many ⁠face budget deficits, forcing unpopular spending cuts that have triggered protests. Bolivia declared a state of emergency this weekend and began to clear blockades that had paralyzed the nation for more than 50 days as labor unions and others protested austerity measures enacted by center-right President Rodrigo Paz. In Chile, President Jose Antonio Kast saw ​his approval rating plummet after the Iran war prompted his government to hike fuel prices, while Argentine President Javier Milei's austerity measures have been met with recurring protests. Security challenges persist despite pledges to be tough on crime. In Ecuador, murders soared ⁠30% last year, with President Daniel Noboa's government blaming it on turf wars between splintered gangs vying for dominance. Murders also surged in Costa Rica under right-wing populist Rodrigo Chaves. His successor, President Laura Fernandez, vowed a war on crime, but murders have remained high as the small, Central American nation has become a key shipment point for South American cocaine ⁠destined ​for the United States and Europe.

DIFFICULT TEST Drug trafficking, illegal mining and little state presence in parts of Colombia are likely to prove a difficult test for De La Espriella, analysts said. De La Espriella won by less than 1% and must govern with a divided Congress, where his rival Ivan Cepeda's Historic Pact party holds more seats than any other.

Cepeda said on Monday he will await the results of a final count verified by judges before officially conceding, and that his campaign has contested tallies from more than 57,000 ballot boxes, about half ⁠of the national total. His party and the left are a major political force and are open to dialogue, Cepeda said, adding De La Espriella must behave respectfully toward him, Petro and their supporters. He also called for calm from his voters, after scattered ⁠protests in some cities overnight.

De La Espriella's style of dress and promises of mega-prisons ⁠have drawn comparisons to El Salvador's leader Nayib Bukele, who calls himself the "world's coolest dictator." De La Espriella has denied he is imitating Bukele. "Colombia is a much larger country and far more complex to manage than El Salvador, and importing El Salvador's security solutions into Colombia is not feasible, whether legally, budget-wise or in terms of international engagement," said Sergio Guzman, founder of Colombia Risk Analysis.

Harvard's Levitsky said ‌De La Espriella will have to work with ‌Colombia's powerful democratic institutions to pass reforms, and that "if he tries to be more radical then he can get into some trouble."