Modi needs a 2nd miracle for the second term in PMO
The political situation in Maharashtra, Bihar and Karnataka, seems 50:50 due to the political alliances of NDA and UPA but the miraclee may settle it largely in favour of Modi.Siddheshwar Shukla | Updated: 17-05-2019 11:09 IST | Created: 16-05-2019 19:29 IST
Although many pollsters are predicting his days are over but as a seasoned politician, who never lost an election since his entry into electoral politics in 2002, Modi looks confident enough for a second term at least in his speeches and media interviews. It's not only in elections but he had said on several platforms since 2015 that 2019 would never be a challenge for him but 2024 may be.
Here the larger question is how will he get the magic figure of the majority?
The unprecedented and spectacular victory of BJP in 2014 Lok Sabha elections had come from ten states of the Hindi heartland. They were Bihar, Chhatisgarh, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh. The saffron party had won 190 of the 225 Lok Sabha seats in these states. BJP's gaining 73 out of 80 seats from Uttar Pradesh and getting full seats from Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Himachal and Delhi was no less than a miracle as it had surpassed all the logical predictions and election surveys in 2014.
However, it is no denying fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the tallest politician of his age and remained invincible since he entered into electoral politics. Is he wrong in his prediction or the results will be shocking? Will we see another miracle? Will results vindicate Modi's predictions? If he returns, through which route?
Indian National Congress seems to have gained in Uttar Pradesh. How much? In 2014, BJP had won 73 seats because of a triangular contest between SP, BSP and BJP while Congress was very weak. In 2019, Congress has consolidated itself as a major player while SP-BSP has joined hands. A strong Congress, that is being seen as a contestant for Muslim votes, may emerge as the third force at some seats causing triangular contest. This would be gain for BJP particularly on the seats where Congress emerges as third largest party. On those seats, a repeat of 2014 is likely to happen for BJP.
In Delhi, the political situation is almost the same as it was in 2014 except role reversal between AAP and Congress. This time AAP is demoralized while Congress has consolidated itself. The saffron party may repeat 2014 in Delhi. In addition, the Odisha may be an added advantage where BJD is apparently facing strong anti-incumbency.
In a recent media interview eminent psephologist Prof. Sanjay Kumar, Director, Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi sees 2nd miracle happening for Modi and has opined that the ruling BJP is likely to get majority while Congress will be below 100 seats. He also predicted BJP emerging as a major player in West Bengal. BJP also expects massive political gains in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. The political situation in Maharashtra, Bihar and Karnataka, seems 50:50 due to the political alliance of NDA and UPA but the miracle may settle it largely in favour of Modi.
If required, Modi may secure support from BJD as Navin Patnaik is reportedly closure to the Prime Minister after Fani. Besides, AIADMK also has a soft corner for BJP.
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