UK polls: Boris Johnson ahead in bookie's betting stakes


PTI | London | Updated: 10-12-2019 21:01 IST | Created: 10-12-2019 21:01 IST
UK polls: Boris Johnson ahead in bookie's betting stakes
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As political leaders focus on a final dash for votes ahead of Thursday's crucial general election, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is ahead at least in the betting odds game with a forecast of a majority for his Conservative Party. The Tories remain the odds-on favourite to win the most seats, with bets predicting a fairly comfortable majority seats for the ruling party and Opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn pegged at distant odds to oust Johnson.

The other parties, such as the Liberal Democrats and Brexit Party, are far behind in terms of popularity in the stakes, indicating a clear two-way Johnson versus Corbyn race to the House of Commons. According to bookies Betfair, a Tory majority is leading at a two to five margin, with a hung Parliament projection at three is to one.

"The Labour Party need a dramatic late swing in the coming days to shorten that gap," said a Betfair spokesperson. Betting exchange Smarkets also has the Tories in the lead, with Labour at risk of losing in some key areas in its so-called heartland towards the north largely over the issue of Brexit.

"Things seem to be changing in the Midlands with the Tories able to connect to people over Brexit," notes Sarbjit Bakhshi, Head of Political Markets, Smarkets. While the central Tory message has been to "Get Brexit Done", Labour has chosen to focus much more on wider issues such as a funding crisis in the state-funded National Health Service (NHS).

"The swing across Brexit seats in North, Midlands, Wales appears much higher than elsewhere. Taking 25-30 such seats off Labour, however, does not guarantee the Tories a majority," says Paul Krishnamurty of Betfair. Traditionally, the trajectory of betting odds have been reflective of wider election trends for UK polls. However, turnout on election day and the ability to convince undecided voters in the last few days of campaigning is seen as a strong determining factor for the final tally.

Indian-origin anti-Brexit campaigner Gina Miller, behind tactical voting site Remain United, released latest data this week which seems to indicate that the Conservative Party lead is on the retreat in the last few days of campaigning. The group's analysis, based on a survey by Savanta ComRes, claims that the Tories face a real prospect of failing to win an overall Commons majority – the magic figure of 326 and above, marking the half-way mark of a total 650 MPs.

"These fascinating polling numbers prove that this election is on a knife-edge. If Britain votes tactically on Polling Day – and these results suggest this could happen – then Boris cannot be confident of a majority to deliver his half-baked Brexit," said Miller, who won landmark legal cases to establish the supremacy of the UK Parliament in the process for Britain's exit from the European Union (EU). Tactical voting, which indicates a calculated vote for a candidate to keep another out, is expected to play a role in these elections, with around 35 so-called marginal seats up for grabs to impact the final numbers. The voting age electorate from the 1.5-million strong Indian diaspora are also expected to impact this swing, but experts point out that no particular ethnic group has a particularly definitive impact on the election tally.

"Even if ethnic minorities cast their vote based primarily on their identity, it's not really possible to appeal directly only to one ethnic or religious group to win an election locally. Britain's constituencies are generally too mixed, comprised of a mix of ethnic groups, most of whom vote for similar reasons," explains Omar Khan, Director of race equality think tank Runnymede Trust. Traditionally, the Indian diaspora vote has been seen as more aligned with Labour, but the party's perceived anti-India stance on Kashmir may dent some of that support this time.

A survey of British Indian voter intentions released last month had revealed that in fact both Corbyn and Johnson were almost on an equal pegging for this vote base. The opinion poll conducted by YouGov for UK-based media house India Inc. and US-based data analytics firm Optimus found Labour had declined 12 percentage points since last General Election in 2017, with the Conservatives down four points since then.

The anti-Brexit Lib Dems showed the most statistical hike among Indian-origin voters of 10 percentage points – reflective of the centrality of Brexit in this election.

(This story has not been edited by Devdiscourse staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

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