NOAA Predicts Above Average Hurricane Season in North Atlantic

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 and is monitored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Tropical Cyclone Programme.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an above-average hurricane season in the North Atlantic for this year, fueled by high ocean heat content and the anticipated development of La Niña. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects 17 to 25 named storms (average is 14), 8 to 13 hurricanes (average is 7), and 4 to 7 major hurricanes (average is 3). Major hurricanes are classified as category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with winds of 111 mph (178 km/h) or higher.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 and is monitored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Tropical Cyclone Programme. This marks the eighth consecutive year of above-average activity, with the last below-normal season occurring in 2015.

“It takes just one landfalling hurricane to set back years of socio-economic development. For example, Hurricane Maria in 2017 cost Dominica 800% of its Gross Domestic Product. Early warnings by the WMO community and improved disaster risk management have dramatically reduced fatalities, but Small Island Developing States in the Caribbean still suffer disproportionately,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett.

Barrett highlighted the importance of early warning systems, particularly for small islands, under the international Early Warnings For All initiative. The initiative aims to showcase the need for more coordinated and targeted investment in early warning systems at the forthcoming International Conference on Small Island Developing States.

“We need to be especially vigilant this year due to near-record ocean heat in the region where Atlantic hurricanes form and the shift to La Niña conditions, which together create the conditions for increased storm formulation,” Barrett added.

High ocean temperatures provide more energy for storm development, while La Niña tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics, allowing storms to strengthen. Additionally, an above-normal west African monsoon could produce African easterly waves that often seed some of the strongest Atlantic storms.

Between 1970 and 2021, tropical cyclones were the leading cause of both reported human and economic losses worldwide, accounting for more than 2,000 disasters. However, the death toll from tropical cyclones has decreased significantly from more than 350,000 in the 1970s to less than 20,000 in the 2010s, due to improved early warnings and disaster risk management. Economic losses in the 2010s were reported at $573.2 billion.

The WMO Regional Meteorological Specialized Center in Miami (the US National Hurricane Center) leads the issuance of forecasts and warnings. This season will see improvements in forecast communications and warnings for wind, rainfall, storm surge, and flooding hazards, as well as impact assessments. Enhanced and sustained ocean observation networks are critical for improving forecasts of hurricane rapid intensification and track changes.

NOAA’s next El Niño/La Niña outlook will be issued at the start of June. The WMO Hurricane Committee is also responsible for the rotating lists of tropical names used to communicate warnings and raise public awareness and preparedness.

For more detailed information and updates, the public can follow NOAA and the WMO’s forecast communications through their respective platforms.