IMD Updates Long-Range Forecast for Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Season June 2024

The IMD's forecast provides crucial insights for agricultural planning and water resource management, helping to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather conditions.

In a virtual media interaction held today in New Delhi, Dr. Mritunjya Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), presented the updated Long-Range Forecast Outlook for the Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Season (June–September) 2024, along with the Monthly Rainfall and Temperature Forecast for June 2024.

Highlights of the Long-Range Forecast

Overall Seasonal Rainfall: The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall across India is expected to be 106% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4%, indicating above-normal rainfall for the country during the monsoon season.

Regional Rainfall Distribution:

Central India and South Peninsular India: Anticipated to receive above-normal rainfall (>106% of LPA).

Northwest India: Expected to experience normal rainfall (92-108% of LPA).

Northeast India: Forecasted to have below-normal rainfall (<94% of LPA).

Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ): This region, which includes most rainfed agricultural areas, is likely to experience above-normal rainfall (>106% of LPA).

Geographical Rainfall Patterns:

Above Normal Rainfall: Predicted for most parts of India except for northern parts of Northwest India, Northeast India, and the eastern part of Central India and adjoining areas of east India.

Normal Rainfall: Expected for the country as a whole during June 2024, with above-normal rainfall likely over the south peninsula, adjoining central India, and isolated areas of Northwest and Northeast India.

Below Normal Rainfall: Likely over northern and eastern parts of Northwest India, eastern Central India, and some areas of Northeast and southeastern South Peninsula.

Temperature and Heatwave Predictions for June 2024Maximum Temperatures: Above-normal monthly maximum temperatures are expected over most parts of India, except for many parts of southern peninsular India where normal to below-normal temperatures are anticipated.

Minimum Temperatures: Above-normal monthly minimum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country, except extreme northern parts of Northwest India and a few pockets of east and northeast India where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are expected.

Heatwave Days: Above-normal heatwave days are predicted for most areas of Northwest India and adjoining Central India during June.

ENSO and IOD Conditions

ENSO Conditions: The strong El Niño conditions observed over the equatorial Pacific earlier this year have weakened rapidly into weak El Niño conditions and are currently transitioning towards ENSO-neutral conditions. Climate model forecasts suggest ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to be established at the beginning of the monsoon season, with La Niña conditions potentially developing later in the season.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Currently, neutral IOD conditions are prevailing. Forecasts from global climate models indicate the likelihood of positive IOD conditions developing during the monsoon season.

The IMD's forecast provides crucial insights for agricultural planning and water resource management, helping to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather conditions.