Climate Models Underestimate Rainfall Trends in Northwestern India by 70%

State-of-the-art climate models, such as those featured in the UN's IPCC reports, consistently underestimate rainfall trends in northwestern India by about 70%, according to a study in Geophysical Research Letters. This miscalculation reveals a significant gap in predicting rainfall responses in vulnerable regions like northwestern India and Pakistan.

Current climate models highlighted in the UN's IPCC reports consistently underestimate rainfall trends in northwestern India by approximately 70%, a recent study published in Geophysical Research Letters reveals.

The study also finds relevance in the context of recent landslides in Wayanad, Kerala, attributed to wind changes and warming over the Arabian Sea, according to study co-author Raghu Murtugudde.

Though these models effectively predict global temperature responses to climate change, they fall short in accurately simulating heat exchange between land and air, Murtugudde explained. This shortcoming leads to weaker predicted rainfall responses, crucially failing to forecast heavy rains in northwestern India and Pakistan.

(With inputs from agencies.)