India's Economy Set to Hit 6.9% Growth in Q4 FY2025 Despite Global Strains

India is projected to see a GDP growth of 6.9% in Q4 FY2025, according to ICRA, with full fiscal year growth slowing to 6.3%. This forecast follows a 9.2% growth in 2023-24, driven by strong agriculture and service sectors amid global economic challenges.

ICRA anticipates a 6.9% GDP growth for India in the January-March quarter of 2025, with official data from the National Statistics Office expected on May 30. The projected growth signifies an increase from the 6.2% recorded in the previous quarter but remains below the NSO's estimate of 7.6%.

The fiscal year 2024-25 saw growth rates of 6.7%, 5.6%, and 6.2% across its first three quarters. May 30 will also see the release of annual GDP estimates for the fiscal year, with the NSO forecasting a 6.5% growth rate, matched by the Reserve Bank of India's projections.

ICRA's Chief Economist, Aditi Nayar, remarked on the uneven private consumption and investment trends during the fourth quarter of FY2025, attributing some volatility to tariff-related uncertainties. ICRA predicts a substantial drop in full-year GDP growth to 6.3% for 2024-25, down from 9.2% in the prior year.

Remarkably, India's economy expanded by 9.2% in 2023-24, maintaining its status as the fastest-growing major economy. The growth figures for the preceding years were 7.2% in 2022-23 and 8.7% in 2021-22. The Department of Economic Affairs highlighted that recent economic performance is backed by robust agricultural and service sectors, alongside rising consumption and exports.