Lilly's Mounjaro, Zepbound sales surge, widening lead over Novo Nordisk

Eli Lilly's sales of Zepbound and Mounjaro soared in the second quarter, beating Wall Street estimates and widening its gap with rival Novo Nordisk, despite intensifying competition.

Sales of Eli Lilly's Zepbound ‌and Mounjaro ​injectable weight-loss and diabetes drugs soared during the second quarter, easily beating Wall Street estimates and widening the gap with Danish rival Novo Nordisk.

The trillion-dollar company also posted better-than-expected quarterly results and raised its full-year revenue forecast, and its shares were up 2.5%. The strong results are likely to reassure investors that demand for Lilly's GLP-1 ‌treatments remains resilient despite pricing pressure and intensifying competition from Novo, which launched an oral version of its Wegovy weight-loss drug in the U.S. earlier this year.

Chief Financial Officer Lucas Montarce on a call to discuss the results said demand for injectable GLP-1 medicines remained strong, accounting for roughly three out of every four new patient starts, even as oral obesity pill options have come into the market. Sales of diabetes drug Mounjaro rose 91% to $9.94 billion, beating analysts' estimates, while obesity ‌drug Zepbound brought in $4.93 billion, compared with expectations of $4.73 billion. The two drugs accounted for 64.7% of Lilly's revenue in the latest reported quarter.

Strong demand lifted sales volumes across global markets, with Mounjaro driving growth outside the ‌United States and both Mounjaro and Zepbound boosting U.S. sales, although lower realized prices partly offset those gains, Lilly said. Mounjaro is the brand name used for both weight loss and diabetes outside the U.S. By comparison, Novo's diabetes and obesity portfolio generated nearly 59.3 billion Danish crowns ($9.16 billion) in quarterly sales, led by Ozempic and Wegovy injections.

The U.S. government last month launched a pilot program allowing Americans to access obesity medicines through the Medicare program for people aged 65 and older that will offer the medications for a monthly co-pay of $50. About 80% of patients ⁠in the bridge ​program were opting to start on an injectable weight-loss treatment, ⁠Lilly Executive Vice President Ilya Yuffa said.

Many pharmaceutical industry experts had expected patients to prefer pills over injections, for convenience. The expanded Medicare access should support U.S. growth, with about 60% to 70% of those in the program expected to be patients new to the drugs, said ⁠Kevin Gade, chief operating officer at Lilly investor Bahl & Gaynor.

The market continues to underappreciate the strength of Mounjaro demand outside the U.S. and its longer-term international growth potential, he added. Lilly and Novo dominate the lucrative obesity market. Lilly surpassed a $1 trillion valuation last ​year, while Novo's newly launched Wegovy pill is quickly gaining traction in its U.S. rollout.

The global market for obesity drugs reached $66 billion in 2025, according to data firm IQVIA. Analysts expect it to hit over $100 ⁠billion annually by 2030 in the U.S. alone. Citi analysts said the outlook for the remainder of the year would depend on volume growth, driven by expanded Medicare access and sustained international demand for Mounjaro.

LILLY RAISES BAR AGAIN Lilly now expects revenue of $85 billion to $87 billion for 2026, up ⁠from ​its previous forecast of $82 billion to $85 billion.

J.P.Morgan analysts wrote in a note that Lilly remained their top pick with further upside to Street numbers over the next several years. The revised forecast comes a day after Novo also raised its full-year profit and sales forecasts, counting on its oral Wegovy to help claw back lost ground from Lilly in the lucrative market.

Sales of Foundayo, Lilly's newly launched once-daily obesity pill, came in at $98 million, falling short of ⁠analysts' average expectation of $105.6 million. Foundayo's launch continued to gain momentum, with prescriptions in the last week of July about double those a month earlier, and nearly one in four patients starting on the pill, Yuffa added.

The company ⁠said Foundayo is now under regulatory review in more than ⁠40 markets and expects a rollout across all major markets in 2027. Lilly slightly trimmed the top end of its full-year profit forecast, citing charges related to business activity in the quarter.

It now expects 2026 adjusted earnings of $35.50 to $36.50, from its prior view of $35.50 to $37. Analysts are estimating a profit of $34.20 per share. Adjusted earnings came in at $8.38 per ‌share for the second quarter, sailing past ‌analysts' average estimate of $6.01, according to data compiled by LSEG.

($1 = 6.4705 Danish crowns)