Global Rice Production Faces Decline Amid El Niño and Rising Costs

Global rice production is expected to drop by 9 million metric tonnes in 2026-27 due to El Niño, rising costs, and geopolitical tensions. Despite this, exports remain steady due to strong carry-in stocks. Import demand is up, with global supply-demand concerns warranting close monitoring.

Global rice production is projected to decrease by 9 million metric tonnes, reaching 536.4 million tonnes during the 2026-27 marketing year, according to S&P Global projections referenced by the Indian Rice Exporters' Federation (IREF). This anticipated decline stems from the potential impact of a strong El Niño, escalating input costs, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Significant weather-related uncertainty is currently impacting major rice-producing nations, including India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam, as well as prominent importers like Indonesia and the Philippines. These countries are contending with potential disruptions during planting and growing seasons, shifts in planting acreage, concerns about water availability, and increasing production costs, according to IREF's statement prior to the Bharat International Rice Conference (BIRC) 2026.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center had, by July 2026, forecasted a 97% probability of El Niño continuing into early 2027, with an 81% possibility of it becoming very strong between October and December 2026. This persistence could undermine crop development in key rice-growing regions at crucial planting times. Additionally, higher input costs may influence planting decisions, particularly in Asia.

Despite anticipated reductions in production, global rice exports are expected to remain relatively stable, buoyed by robust carry-in stocks from the 2025-26 marketing year. Conversely, global import demand is projected to increase by almost 4 million metric tonnes, reaching 59.7 million tonnes, as countries strive to secure supplies amid potential harvest disturbances.

Consequently, the global rice stock-to-use ratio is forecast to decline to 36%. While this figure is historically comfortable, continuous monitoring is advised as rice prices in key exporting countries begin to reflect concerns over weather risks and a tighter global supply-demand equilibrium.

S&P Global Energy is anticipated to deliver a comprehensive evaluation of global rice production, consumption, trade, stocks, and prices at BIRC 2026. This analysis will address which nations face the greatest supply risks, identify emerging major importers, and predict potential changes in traditional rice-trade flows over the coming year.