Thailand’s High-Income Future Will Be Shaped by Smarter Cities

Real GDP per person increased by about 2.2 percent annually between 2021 and 2024, far below the roughly 5.4 percent yearly growth that would be required over the coming decade to meet the 2037 objective.

Thailand's ambition to become a high-income economy by 2037 could depend heavily on how successfully Bangkok and the country's secondary cities manage growth, investment, infrastructure and productivity over the next decade. A new report, Thailand Cities of the Future: Urban Foundations for a High-Income Economy, argues that stronger urban systems will be central to supporting the industries expected to drive Thailand's next phase of economic development, including advanced manufacturing, digital services, sustainable and wellness tourism, agribusiness and creative industries.

Co-authored by the World Bank, the Program Management Unit on Area-Based Development and the Urban Design and Development Center, the report uses new spatial and economic data, international evidence and a general-equilibrium model covering 75 urban centres. Its findings show that Thailand's cities already carry much of the country's economic weight, with urban districts accounting for around 89 percent of national GDP growth between 2010 and 2020.

Cities Hold the Key to Thailand's 2037 Economic Ambition

Thailand faces a sizeable growth challenge if it wants to reach high-income status within the planned timeframe. Real GDP per person increased by about 2.2 percent annually between 2021 and 2024, far below the roughly 5.4 percent yearly growth that would be required over the coming decade to meet the 2037 objective.

Cities are expected to play a central role in closing that gap because they bring together workers, businesses, infrastructure, technology and services in ways that can raise productivity. The report stresses that investment decisions must therefore consider how different urban areas can contribute to national growth rather than treating cities as isolated economic centres.

Bangkok remains the dominant economic engine, producing close to half of Thailand's total output and standing nearly 27 times larger than Chiang Mai. Such concentration has supported economic activity, though it has also created growing costs. Traffic congestion alone is estimated to reduce Bangkok's gross regional product by around 7 to 10 percent each year, highlighting how infrastructure constraints can gradually weaken the advantages created by urban scale.

Secondary Cities Could Unlock a Broader Growth Engine

Thailand's secondary cities have considerable economic potential that remains underused, according to the report. Building a stronger network of cities does not mean reducing Bangkok's importance, but creating urban centres that can complement the capital through different industries, skills and economic functions.

Economic modelling covering 75 urban centres shows that the amount of investment and where that investment is directed can produce very different outcomes. When overall investment remains below a certain tipping point, concentrating resources in Bangkok produces stronger economic results. Once investment rises above that threshold, distributing coordinated investment across multiple urban centres becomes increasingly beneficial.

This finding suggests that simply spreading limited funding across many locations may achieve little. Thailand would need investment at sufficient scale, directed toward cities with clear economic potential and supported by complementary infrastructure, institutions and connectivity.

The report identifies five ingredients needed for such a system: complementary specialization between cities, productive urban density, reliable connections between people and markets, resilient infrastructure capable of responding to climate and environmental pressures, and strong institutions able to plan and manage urban development effectively.

Three Tracks Could Build a More Productive Urban Network

The priority is strengthening Bangkok as Thailand's national and international economic anchor. Reducing congestion, improving transport systems and strengthening protection against flooding and extreme heat could help the capital remain productive as population, business activity and infrastructure demands continue to grow.

A second track focuses on establishing stronger foundations across every Thai city. Better urban planning, greater fiscal capacity, capable local institutions, improved connectivity and more resilient infrastructure can create conditions in which businesses invest, and residents gain easier access to employment, education and essential services.

The third involves preparing selected secondary cities for larger economic roles through concentrated and coordinated investment. Cities with strong potential could develop specialised industries, increase productive density and strengthen connections with other economic centres instead of attempting to replicate Bangkok's functions.

Thailand's future urban strategy therefore rests on creating a connected network in which Bangkok remains a powerful anchor and carefully selected secondary cities become stronger contributors to national growth. If infrastructure, investment and urban institutions develop together, the country's cities could provide the economic platform needed to support new industries and move Thailand closer to its high-income ambition by 2037.