International Development News
Development News Edition

Business economists foresee slowdown in US growth

Business economists foresee slowdown in US growth

Washington, Oct 7 (AP) The nation's business economists think President Donald Trump's trade war with China will contribute to a sharp slowdown in economic growth this year and next, raising concerns about a possible recession starting late next year. The latest survey by a panel of 51 forecasters with the National Association for Business Economics shows they expect growth, as measured by the gross domestic product, to slow to 2.3 per cent this year from 2.9 per cent in 2018. The new forecast marks a downgrade from the 2.6% estimate for 2019 economic growth that the NABE panel had made in June.

For 2020, the forecasters expect GDP growth to fall to 1.8%. They see little likelihood of a recession over the next 12 months but expect the risk to increase by late next year. Gregory Daco, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, said the forecasting panel turned more pessimistic over the summer, with 80% of the economists now saying the risks are pointed to the downside.

"The rise in protectionism, pervasive trade policy uncertainty and slower global growth are considered key downside risks," Daco said. Trade conflicts are perceived as the leading risk, with 53% of the panelists identifying it as such, while 12% saying they think weaker global growth is the biggest threat.

The forecasters estimate just a 7% likelihood of a recession starting this year, a 24% likelihood by mid-2020 and 47% by the end of 2020. They foresee a 69% chance of a recession beginning by mid-2021. The economy is in its 11th year of expansion, the longest on record in the United States. To help avoid a recession, the Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate twice this year. Among the NABE panelists, about half foresee no further rate cuts this year; 43% envision at least one further cut. By the end of 2020, 69% expect the Fed to have cut its benchmark rate from where it is now.

The NABE is the professional organization made up of 2,800 members who use economics in their work. The group is holding its annual convention in Denver and is to hear from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday. (AP) NSA

(This story has not been edited by Devdiscourse staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)



'No escape from telephones', this 1953 prediction actually comes true

In 1953, a telephone company chief predicted that therell be no escape from telephones in the future....

With Ayodhya verdict, CJI starts clearing high profile pending cases

Ending all the speculations, the Chief Justice of India Mr. Ranjan Gogoi who is due to retire on November 17 decided to deliver the verdict in Ayodya dispute at 10.30 am on Saturday which is not a working day for the Supreme Court. This is ...

How partnerships and collaborations could enhance teacher training

Monica Malhotra Kandhari, Managing Director, MBD Group shares her views on public private partnership and collaborations in education sector. She supports her propositions with her organisations success stories....

Fixed Test centers would facelift level of WTC in India

The venues for the test matches in India should be fixed so that World Test Championship matches remain fair....


Latest News

McCollum helps Blazers avoid disastrous collapse

CJ McCollum scored 32 points and Hassan Whiteside added 21 points and 12 rebounds as the visiting Portland Trail Blazers built a huge early lead, gave it all back and more, but then rallied for a 121-116 win over the San Antonio Spurs on Sa...

Odisha govt approves investment proposals worth Rs 1,753.82 cr

The Odisha government has approved six investment proposals worth Rs 1,753.82 crore in different sectors, which would create employment opportunities to 5,566 people, official sources said. The six projects in textile, food processing, pla...

UPDATE 2-China says outspoken Australian lawmakers should repent

Two Australian lawmakers who were denied entry to China for a study tour because of their outspoken criticism of Beijing must repent and redress their mistakes if they want to visit the country, Chinas embassy in Canberra said. Andrew Hasti...

Doncic, Porzingis carry Mavericks past Raptors

Luka Doncic had 26 points, 15 rebounds and seven assists as the Dallas Mavericks defeated the visiting Toronto Raptors 110-102 Saturday night. Kristaps Porzingis added 20 points and 15 rebounds for the Mavericks, who had lost their two prev...

Give Feedback