Ukraine Faces Winter Energy Crisis Amid Russian Attacks

Ukraine is grappling with an anticipated six gigawatt shortfall in electricity supply this winter due to Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and the expiry of a gas supply contract. The country is also dealing with rolling blackouts and may need to import additional gas from Europe.

Ukraine's electricity supply shortfall could reach six gigawatts (GW) this winter - about a third of expected peak demand - amid Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and the expiry of a gas supply contract at the end of this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report.

Since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine's energy system has been the target of Russian attacks, causing rolling blackouts and limited electricity supply to some regions for a few hours a day. Ukraine's generation capacity fell by more than two GW below peak demand during the summer, which is typically lower than winter.

Even with nuclear plants returning from maintenance and electricity imports of 1.7 GW from Europe, Ukraine's supply deficit could reach six GW this winter, equal to Denmark's peak annual demand. Further risks include infrastructure attacks, equipment failures, and missed maintenance cycles.

Ukraine might meet its gas demand from domestic sources, but a colder winter would necessitate imports. A gas transit deal with Russia's Gazprom is set to expire, and Ukraine does not intend to extend it. This heightens the need for additional gas from central and eastern Europe.

Moldova, sharing transmission capacity with Ukraine, poses another challenge due to its reliance on a power plant in the Transnistria region. Any shortages would require a distribution agreement between the countries.

The IEA suggests repair and construction work to protect energy infrastructure, especially near nuclear plants. It also emphasizes the need for energy-saving measures, more combined heat and power units, and improved electricity import transmission. Ukraine will require approximately 0.6 billion cubic meters of gas imports by November to meet storage targets.