Higher Tobacco Taxes Cut Smoking and Show How Health Levies Can Change Daily Lives

Figures for adult tobacco use, a broader measure than cigarette smoking, show relative reductions between 2010 and 2025 of about 43% in India, 37% in Pakistan, 34% in Brazil, and 29% in Bangladesh and the Philippines.

A cigarette pack that takes a bigger bite out of someone's daily budget can change buying habits, and new research across 15 countries shows how stronger tobacco taxes can support that shift. The independent analysis found improvements in cigarette taxation in every country studied between 2009 and 2025, with the strongest results linked to substantial increases, simpler systems and policies that stop rising incomes from making cigarettes easier to afford. The findings underpin the World Health Organization's 3 by 35 Initiative, which calls for a 50% increase in the real prices of tobacco, alcohol and sugary drinks by 2035 to reduce consumption, prevent noncommunicable diseases and injuries, and generate money for health and development.

What the Philippines and Ukraine reveal

The Philippines offers a striking example of how tax reform can affect household purchases and public services. Following its landmark 2013 reform, cigarette prices rose sharply, with the study estimating a 638% inflation-adjusted increase for the most-sold brand across 2008–2024. Cigarette-smoking prevalence fell by roughly one third between 2010 and 2025, and tobacco-tax revenue was earmarked to expand universal health coverage. Ukraine recorded a 659% real-price increase for its most-sold cigarette brand between 2008 and 2024. Mexico, the Philippines and Ukraine experienced significant smoking declines after major tax and price increases, with other tobacco-control measures contributing to the broader effort.

Figures for adult tobacco use, a broader measure than cigarette smoking, show relative reductions between 2010 and 2025 of about 43% in India, 37% in Pakistan, 34% in Brazil, and 29% in Bangladesh and the Philippines. These reductions describe changes relative to starting levels, rather than percentage-point drops. Progress remains uneven because cigarettes became less affordable over the longer term in only a limited number of countries studied; elsewhere, inflation or income growth overtook price increases. The research identifies four ingredients for stronger policy: substantial, regular increases; simpler tax structures; greater reliance on specific excise taxes charged per quantity; and automatic adjustments for inflation and income growth. WHO's Dr Etienne Krug says small, irregular increases can be eroded by inflation or manipulated by industry.

Sugary drinks and alcohol expose gaps in tax policy

WHO data show that at least 116 countries levy national excise taxes on sugary drinks, but the median excise share for a comparable carbonated sugary drink is just 2.4% of its retail price. Between 2022 and 2024, these drinks became less affordable in 34 countries and more affordable in 62. Around one quarter of countries with relevant tax systems base charges on sugar content, encouraging lower-sugar choices and reformulation, and just 14% automatically adjust specific taxes.

Countries are directing this revenue into health: Azerbaijan, France, Hungary, the Philippines and Tanzania support expanded coverage; Panama, Russia and Zimbabwe fund programmes addressing cancer, diabetes or other noncommunicable diseases; Poland and Portugal support broader health purposes. Timor-Leste reported the highest total tax share on the comparable drink, approximately 53%, against a global average of about 22%, roughly two-thirds below cigarettes' total tax share.

At least 167 countries apply national alcohol excise taxes, with population-weighted excise shares averaging approximately 21% of beer prices and 28% of spirits prices. Beer became less affordable in only 31% of countries between 2022 and 2024, and spirits in 22%. Fewer than one in four countries with specific alcohol taxes require automatic regular increases, and at least 25 exempt wine from excise.

What a 50% real-price rise means for shoppers

WHO estimates that reaching the 2035 target would require nominal prices to roughly double globally on average, taking cigarettes from US$4.70 to US$9.60 per pack, beer from US$1.30 to US$3.10 per 330 ml, and sugary drinks from US$0.90 to US$1.90 per 330 ml. These are global estimates, with the largest increases needed in low-income countries, where prices would need to more than triple.

The experience shows that reform is possible in difficult political and economic settings, and modest increases cannot deliver the same protection. WHO is calling for long-term tax roadmaps, automatic adjustments, closed loopholes, an end to preferential treatment for cheaper products, and appropriate coverage of comparable products. Its new 3 by 35 website supports implementation, knowledge exchange, country advocacy and global partnerships, with country champions sharing perspectives and forthcoming case studies documenting progress and lessons.