Drought in the South, Floods in the Horn: Africa Braces for a Powerful El Niño

The Food and Agriculture Organization is calling for urgent preparedness as forecasts indicate that the current El Niño could become one of the strongest recorded since 1950, disrupting rainfall and agricultural production across Africa. The warning carries particular urgency because approximately 149 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa are already experiencing high levels of food insecurity, leaving governments and humanitarian agencies with limited room to absorb another major climate shock.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is calling for urgent preparations as the current El Niño threatens to develop into one of the strongest events recorded since 1950. Moderate El Niño conditions were already present in the Pacific Ocean in July 2026, and climate models indicate that the phenomenon could strengthen further in the months ahead.

Its consequences for Africa will not follow a single pattern. El Niño can suppress rainfall in some regions while intensifying it elsewhere, creating simultaneous drought and flood emergencies across a continent whose food systems remain heavily dependent on seasonal weather.

Western and Central Africa face an uncertain but potentially damaging outlook. El Niño does not produce uniform conditions across these regions, yet many areas tend to experience below-average rainfall during the June-to-September rainy season. Reduced precipitation could weaken agricultural production, particularly for smallholder farmers who depend on rain-fed cultivation and have limited access to irrigation, insurance or financial reserves.

Eastern Africa faces an even sharper geographical divide. South Sudan, Sudan, western Ethiopia, Eritrea and Uganda's Karamoja region often receive less rainfall during their main growing seasons in El Niño years. Poor rains could limit crop development, reduce pasture and weaken water availability for farming and livestock.

The eastern Horn of Africa, however, faces the opposite threat. Areas that rely on the October-to-December rains frequently experience above-average precipitation during El Niño periods. Heavy rainfall could replenish water supplies, but it could also trigger severe flooding, destroy crops, damage roads and other infrastructure, displace communities and interrupt access to markets and humanitarian assistance.

The uneven outlook complicates regional planning. Authorities cannot prepare for El Niño as though it were one continent-wide drought. Drought-resistant seeds may be essential in one location, while flood barriers, drainage systems and evacuation plans may be more urgent elsewhere.

Southern Africa's Maize Belt Faces a High-Stakes Season

Southern Africa is particularly exposed because El Niño is closely associated with below-average rainfall between October and April, the region's principal agricultural season. The dependence on maize raises the stakes. As the dominant staple crop across much of the region, maize shapes household food consumption, farmer incomes and national cereal supplies. It is also highly sensitive to drought, meaning prolonged rainfall shortages could reduce harvests during the 2026/27 season.

The immediate outlook is not entirely bleak. Strong maize harvests in parts of Southern Africa earlier in 2026 may help support cereal availability and provide a buffer against an initial decline in production. However, a strong preceding harvest cannot fully insulate the region from an extended dry period.

The durability of that protection will depend on where surpluses are located, how much grain is stored, whether markets remain accessible and whether food can move efficiently from better-supplied areas to countries or communities facing deficits. Even when cereal remains available at the regional level, high transport costs, weak purchasing power or disrupted local markets can leave vulnerable households unable to obtain it.

A poor agricultural season could also affect more than food supply. Rural families may lose income from crop sales, while livestock owners could face deteriorating pasture and water conditions. Governments may confront pressure to increase imports or expand social assistance, potentially stretching public finances already burdened by other economic and humanitarian demands.

The risk is therefore not limited to lower maize output. It is the possibility that a climate shock could move through interconnected food, income and market systems, worsening hardship even before national stocks are exhausted.

Early Warning Means Little Without Early Money

The most consequential part of FAO's warning concerns timing. El Niño's likely effects are becoming clearer before the most damaging conditions have developed, creating an opportunity to reduce losses rather than merely respond to them.

FAO has been working with regional organisations to translate climate forecasts into preparedness measures. In July, the agency joined an El Niño–Southern Oscillation webinar organised by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre and the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development. Experts examined the implications for agriculture, food security, health, disaster management and water resources.

Such discussions can improve coordination, but forecasts alone cannot protect a crop, reinforce a riverbank or keep livestock alive. Effective anticipatory action requires funding to be released before drought or flooding becomes a full-scale humanitarian emergency.

FAO and the World Food Programme are seeking US$202 million through a joint Anticipatory Action Appeal intended to protect 8.8 million people across 22 countries, including 12 in Africa. Planned measures include cash assistance, early warning systems, drought-tolerant and flood-resistant seeds, livestock support, flood protection and improved water-storage infrastructure.

The approach reflects an important shift in humanitarian policy: using forecasts to act before losses occur rather than waiting for visible evidence of disaster. Cash delivered before a poor season can help families buy food without selling livestock or farm tools. Early seed distribution can allow farmers to adjust planting decisions, while water storage and flood protection can preserve productive assets.

FAO says its response to the 2023–2024 El Niño showed that each dollar spent in advance could prevent several dollars in later humanitarian losses. The practical challenge is that preventive action often struggles to attract political attention and donor funding precisely because the worst outcomes have not yet occurred.

It creates a recurring contradiction. Humanitarian systems recognise that early action is less costly, yet financing frequently accelerates only after crops fail, homes are flooded and displacement rises. Whether the current appeal is funded promptly will test whether anticipatory action has become an operational priority or remains largely an accepted principle.

The Next Crisis Will Be Shaped by Decisions Made Now

El Niño's eventual strength will matter, but it will not determine Africa's food-security outlook on its own. The timing and distribution of rainfall, the length of dry periods, the intensity of floods and the capacity of governments to respond will all influence the final impact. The next signals to watch will include seasonal rainfall data, river levels, crop conditions, pasture availability and food prices. The October-to-December rains in the eastern Horn will be particularly important, as will the October-to-April agricultural season across Southern Africa.

Funding and implementation will be equally decisive. Governments and humanitarian agencies must identify the most exposed communities, release resources before critical planting periods and ensure that seeds, cash, livestock assistance and flood-protection measures reach intended recipients in time.

The stakes are already elevated. According to the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, around 149 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa are experiencing high levels of food insecurity. Another disrupted agricultural season could deepen existing vulnerabilities, particularly among households that have already depleted savings, accumulated debt or sold productive assets to survive previous shocks.

El Niño may be a natural climate phenomenon, but the scale of the resulting humanitarian damage will be shaped by human choices. Forecasting systems have provided a warning. The decisive question is whether institutions act while there is still time to prevent a climate hazard from becoming a wider food emergency.