ANALYSIS-Trump's minerals push has yet to loosen China's grip ahead of Xi talks

US ​President Donald Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping this week with a ‌key part ​of his trade strategy unfinished: securing a homegrown supply of critical minerals to counter Beijing's dominance.

Many US mining projects remain years from production despite billions of dollars in federal investment by the Trump administration, leaving American manufacturers dependent on Chinese materials essential to semiconductors, robotics, weapons systems and the artificial intelligence boom. That dependence ‌puts Trump in an awkward position for trade talks. He can press Xi only so hard on tariffs and export controls without risking access to metals, magnets and chemical compounds that the US does not produce in sufficient quantities, according to half a dozen analysts interviewed by Reuters.

Xi has used China's position as the world's top rare earths miner as leverage in negotiations. Last year, Beijing restricted exports of the minerals and magnets, disrupting work at ‌Ford Motor and other US manufacturers. Washington negotiated for continued access. The gap between Trump's minerals ambitions and the slow pace of execution reflects the difficulty of rebuilding an industry the US nearly abandoned at the ‌end of the 20th century, said Samir Kapadia, head of trade at the Washington-based business advisory firm Vogel Group.

"Right now there are more PowerPoint decks than permits, so the question is how many of these projects exist only in PDF form and how many are shovel-ready," Kapadia said. The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

A TEST OF WASHINGTON'S NEGOTIATION LEVERAGE The meeting with Xi, expected on Thursday, will test Trump's strategy.

Trump and Xi may agree to extend their existing trade truce, which is due to expire ⁠in January and ​includes export-control waivers for certain critical minerals. "The Chinese have been ⁠using the critical minerals choke collar on the US when they feel like it," said Rich Nolan, head of the National Mining Association trade group.

China has said it restricted the minerals to prevent their use in war. It has also accused Washington of ⁠abusing export controls by blocking semiconductor exports to China. Meanwhile, the US has lagged in production. Its manufacturing capacity for neodymium-iron-boron magnets, used in electric vehicles and military equipment, was roughly 4,500 metric tons annually in 2025. That compared with about 210,000 metric tons ​in China, according to the International Energy Agency.

Beyond mining, China has spent decades building the processing and refining facilities, technical expertise and manufacturing infrastructure needed to turn raw materials into industrial components. "Where are we ⁠now? Exactly where the Chinese want us: screwed up beyond belief," said Jack Lifton, an analyst with Technology Metals Research.

While the Trump administration has moved to accelerate mineral projects, much of the infrastructure remains years away, with mines, refineries and processing facilities requiring a decade or more ⁠to ​come online. A $7.4 billion Tennessee refinery for copper, zinc and other critical minerals backed by South Korea's Korea Zinc is not expected to open until 2030. Rio Tinto and BHP aim to build North America's largest copper mine — but it wouldn't open until next decade. Last year, Trump's administration agreed to take an equity stake in Trilogy Metals , which plans to produce copper in Alaska starting in 2031.

Vulcan Elements has begun making rare ⁠earth magnets in North Carolina, although its customers have not yet approved them for use. Some projects are further along. MP Materials is expanding magnet production in Texas under a multibillion-dollar Pentagon partnership. Nevada's Thacker Pass mine — ⁠North America's largest lithium source — is under construction by Lithium Americas. ⁠Production is expected in 2028. Perpetua Resources plans to produce antimony — used to make bullets and armor — in Idaho by 2029.

Trump's minerals strategy also faces a political test at home. Democrats' midterm victories will give them control of Congress next year, and some have questioned the administration's investments in private companies. US Energy Secretary Chris ‌Wright, whose department funded multiple minerals projects, ‌said last week he is "happy to explain everything we've done."

(Reporting By Jarrett Renshaw in Shenzhen, China, and Ernest Scheyder ​in Houston; Editing by Trevor Hunnicutt and Edmund Klamann)