Yemen's Southern Secession: A New Middle Eastern Power Struggle

Yemen's Southern Transitional Council aims to hold a referendum on independence in two years. This move challenges the Saudi-backed Yemeni government and intensifies regional tensions. The UAE has approached the situation with restraint, as Saudi Arabia considers the Southern Transitional Council's seizure of Hadramout a strategic threat.

The Southern Transitional Council in Yemen has announced plans for a referendum on independence from the north, aiming for a vote in two years. This announcement marks the clearest indication yet of the UAE-backed group's intention to secede, potentially escalating the crisis with Yemen's internationally recognized government and its Saudi backers.

Saudi-backed forces have initiated an operation to reclaim control over critical regions, such as Hadramout province, seized by the Southern Transitional Council. This unexpected shift has laid bare divisions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, long considered regional security pillars, as their interests have recently diverged on various geopolitical fronts.

Saudi Arabia has welcomed efforts by Yemen's presidential council to resolve the southern dispute through a forum inclusive of all factions, following unilateral moves by the Southern Transitional Council. Despite airstrike support in reclaiming territories, tensions continue, exacerbated by transport disruptions and ongoing oil output agreement discussions within OPEC+.

(With inputs from agencies.)