El Niño Likely to Continue Until February 2027: Government

The Minister said ₹145.06 crore has been allocated under the Deep Ocean Mission during the current financial year to support the mapping of marine resources.

The Centre has said El Niño conditions are expected to continue until February 2027, with scientists closely monitoring their possible impact on the Indian monsoon, marine ecosystems and coastal regions through advanced forecasting systems developed in the country.

Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Science and Technology and Earth Sciences, Dr. Jitendra Singh, said the latest assessment by the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) shows that El Niño, which emerged in May 2026, is likely to persist from June 2026 to February 2027. The forecast, generated using INCOIS' indigenous Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning-based El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction system along with the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System, places the probability of its continuation between 70 and 90 per cent.

Monsoon influenced by several climate factors

Dr. Singh explained that although El Niño has often been linked to weaker summer monsoon rainfall across parts of India, it is only one of several climate systems that influence rainfall patterns.

He said the Indian monsoon is also shaped by factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and interactions between the ocean and atmosphere. The final impact on this year's monsoon will depend on how these conditions develop alongside prevailing wind patterns during the season.

The government said scientists will continue tracking these changing conditions through advanced forecasting models to improve the accuracy of weather predictions.

Marine ecosystems may face added pressure

According to the Minister, the evolving El Niño could alter atmospheric circulation over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal while increasing the likelihood of marine heatwaves due to sustained warming of ocean waters.

These changes could affect ocean mixing, reduce nutrient availability and influence marine biological productivity, leading to shifts in fish distribution and changes within coastal ecosystems. Variations in waves and swell conditions may also affect navigation, offshore activities and other operations that depend on stable marine conditions.

Stronger forecasting and coastal preparedness

Dr. Singh said INCOIS has strengthened its Ocean State Forecast and marine multi-hazard early warning services by using high-resolution forecasting models capable of predicting storm surges, high waves, swell surges and strong ocean currents.

The country's ocean observation network has also expanded through the deployment of ocean gliders, moored buoys, Argo floats, tide gauges and satellite-based monitoring systems, all integrated with advanced data assimilation technology.

The government has also enhanced round-the-clock monitoring, impact-based forecasting and advisory services while conducting training programmes, mock drills and awareness campaigns to improve preparedness among coastal communities.

Deep Ocean Mission advances marine research

The Minister said ₹145.06 crore has been allocated under the Deep Ocean Mission during the current financial year to support the mapping of marine resources.

The programme is expanding biodiversity surveys across seamounts in India's Exclusive Economic Zone while deploying Autonomous Underwater Vehicles and Remotely Operated Vehicles to explore hydrothermal vents, mineral-rich regions and other valuable marine resources.

For coastal states, including Tamil Nadu, INCOIS continues to provide Ocean State Forecast services offering predictions on waves, winds, swells, currents and sea surface temperatures up to ten days in advance. Regular advisories on high waves, swell surges and strong currents are also issued to support disaster preparedness and improve marine safety.

Dr. Singh said the government remains committed to investing in indigenous forecasting technologies, advanced ocean observation systems and scientific decision-support tools to deliver timely advisories for governments, fishermen, coastal communities and other stakeholders while strengthening India's resilience to changing climate conditions.