ILO Warns El Niño Could Put Millions of Jobs at Risk

According to the report, changing rainfall patterns linked to El Niño are expected to disrupt agriculture, fisheries, energy, transport, logistics and tourism.

The International Labour Organization (ILO) has warned that the 2026–2027 El Niño could disrupt jobs, reduce incomes and worsen working conditions across Latin America and the Caribbean, with informal workers, rural communities and people employed outdoors expected to face the greatest risks. In a new policy brief, the ILO says the climate phenomenon could trigger a chain of economic and labour market impacts that stretch far beyond extreme weather, affecting food security, inflation, productivity and employment throughout the region.

According to the report, changing rainfall patterns linked to El Niño are expected to disrupt agriculture, fisheries, energy, transport, logistics and tourism. These sectors support millions of workers, making them especially vulnerable to droughts, floods, heatwaves and severe storms.

The study notes that climate impacts will vary across the region. The Central American Dry Corridor, the Caribbean and northern South America are likely to experience drought and water shortages, while Ecuador and Peru could face intense rainfall and flooding. Southeastern South America may see heavier-than-normal rainfall and damaging storms.

Informal Workers Face the Biggest Risks

The ILO says nearly half of all workers in Latin America and the Caribbean earn a living in the informal economy, where access to social protection and financial support is often limited. This leaves many families more exposed to income losses when climate-related disasters interrupt work or reduce economic activity.

The report also warns that rising food and energy prices could increase inflation, deepen food insecurity and place additional pressure on low-income households. As financial hardship grows, the risk of child labour could also increase in the most vulnerable communities.

Early Action Can Reduce the Impact

ILO Deputy Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean Fabio Bertranou said the effects of El Niño are not unavoidable and will depend largely on how well countries prepare for the challenges ahead.

The organisation recommends expanding social protection for vulnerable workers, investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, strengthening workplace health and safety measures, improving early warning systems and encouraging social dialogue to develop responses suited to national conditions.

The ILO also urges policymakers to view El Niño as more than a weather event, stressing that climate shocks can spread through economies and labour markets before affecting jobs, incomes and working conditions. Understanding those links, the report says, is essential for protecting workers and supporting decent employment across the region.