A Warming Nation’s Wake-Up Call: Togo’s Vision for Climate-Resilient Growth

The World Bank’s CCDR for Togo warns that climate change could severely undermine development gains but highlights that with bold reforms and targeted investments, the country can transition to a resilient, inclusive, and low-carbon economy. Key priorities include greening agriculture, urban planning, energy, and social protection while unlocking innovative climate finance.

Togo stands at a pivotal moment where its hard-won economic gains are at risk of being swept away by the mounting impacts of climate change. The World Bank’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), developed with the support of Industrial Economics (IEc), the Global Program on Nature-Based Solutions, and national institutions, offers a stark warning but also a roadmap. While the country has averaged 5.2% growth over the past decade, the report emphasizes that this growth has not translated into a deep structural transformation. Rural poverty remains entrenched, urban infrastructure is under strain, and the economic base is overly reliant on climate-vulnerable sectors. Climate change now threatens to widen inequalities and could slash GDP per capita by as much as 12.2% by 2050, pushing up to half a million people into poverty annually. But the CCDR is not just a diagnosis; it’s also a call to action, outlining how targeted investments and reforms could build a more inclusive, low-carbon, and resilient future.

Climate-Smart Agriculture: The Cornerstone of Resilience

Agriculture, which employs 40% of the workforce and remains the primary source of income in rural areas, is both a cornerstone of the economy and its most climate-exposed sector. Yields are already being hit by erratic rainfall, drought, and heat stress. Without major reforms, production could decline by up to 12.3% over the next 25 years. The report urges a rapid transformation toward climate-smart practices, including drought-resistant crops, organic fertilizers, improved irrigation, and mechanization. It also recommends expanding agroforestry, riparian buffers, and community-managed forests as nature-based solutions that both reduce emissions and improve soil and water retention. These approaches could open access to international carbon markets while enhancing food security and productivity. But such a transition requires greater land tenure security, particularly for women, and innovative financing to help smallholders adopt new technologies. Green finance, public-private partnerships, and targeted subsidies will all be critical to enabling this shift.

Cities Under Pressure: Planning for Climate-Resilient Urban Growth

Togo’s cities are growing fast, with more than 60% of the population expected to be urban by 2050. Yet they remain highly vulnerable to floods, extreme heat, and crumbling infrastructure. Coastal urban areas like Lomé are particularly at risk from rising sea levels and coastal erosion. The report finds that between 3% and 6% of current urban areas are already exposed to 100-year floods, and this figure is expected to rise. Climate-resilient urban planning is urgently needed, including new building codes, drainage systems, green spaces, and solid waste management. Nature-based approaches can help reduce both emissions and flood risks. For example, restoring mangroves and wetlands around urban areas could buffer storm surges while enhancing biodiversity. But most municipalities lack the technical and financial capacity to implement these strategies. The CCDR recommends performance-based grants, increased intergovernmental transfers, and enhanced local governance to enable cities to respond effectively to escalating climate risks.

Energy Transition: Powering Growth with Renewables

Energy is both a major challenge and an enormous opportunity for Togo. Although electricity access has improved significantly in urban areas, rural access remains low. Biomass, mainly firewood and charcoal, still accounts for 75% of energy use, contributing to deforestation and respiratory illness. The government’s target of universal access by 2028 will require a 500% increase in electricity demand by 2050. To meet this challenge, the CCDR recommends a major expansion of renewable energy, especially solar and hydroelectric power, as well as decentralized mini-grid solutions for rural communities. A modernized grid, coupled with clean cooking solutions like biogas and improved stoves, could reduce biomass consumption by over 90% and cut greenhouse gas emissions significantly. However, the report cautions against overreliance on fossil gas as a transition fuel, warning of long-term dependency risks. Public-private partnerships and strategic regulatory reforms will be crucial to unlock the estimated $3.9 billion in investments needed to decarbonize the sector by mid-century.

Human Capital and Finance: The Engines of Transformation

Climate change does not affect everyone equally. The CCDR highlights how the poorest and most vulnerable, especially women, children, and rural populations, are disproportionately affected. Rising temperatures are already eroding learning outcomes, with school performance projected to drop by up to 20% due to heat stress by 2050. Health systems, too, are under pressure from increasing climate-sensitive diseases, while social safety nets remain fragmented and underfunded. The report calls for expanded investment in climate-resilient schools and health facilities, universal healthcare coverage, and adaptive social protection systems that can respond quickly to climate shocks. Financing these ambitions, however, remains a major hurdle. The report estimates that Togo will need nearly $14 billion in climate investments by 2050, more than 6% of GDP annually in the short term. To close this gap, the government must reform its tax system to include carbon pricing, operationalize a national carbon credit market, and attract private investment through green bonds and sustainability-linked debt instruments. A unified national climate strategy, stronger institutions, and cross-sector coordination will be essential to channel these resources effectively.

The message of the CCDR is unequivocal: climate change poses an existential threat to Togo’s development, but it also offers a transformative opportunity. If the country can combine structural reforms with smart climate investments anchored in inclusive growth, green innovation, and strong governance it can build a future that is not only more resilient but also more prosperous for all.