IATA Warns Aircraft Shortages to Persist as Supply Chain Strains Limit Growth

Despite a modest rise in aircraft deliveries late in 2025 and projected production increases in 2026, IATA warns that global demand for aircraft will continue to exceed supply for nearly a decade.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released an updated analysis confirming that aerospace supply chain disruptions remain one of the most severe constraints on airline industry growth. Despite a modest rise in aircraft deliveries late in 2025 and projected production increases in 2026, IATA warns that global demand for aircraft will continue to exceed supply for nearly a decade.

According to the report, the mismatch between airline fleet requirements and manufacturer output will likely not normalize before 2031–2034, reflecting years of production setbacks, certification delays, and capacity shortfalls.

Aviation’s Most Pressing Challenges: Aircraft Shortages and Rising Backlogs

Key findings from IATA’s updated global outlook include:

• Delivery shortfalls exceed 5,300 aircraft due to production disruptions since 2020.

• The global order backlog has surpassed 17,000 aircraft, equal to almost 60% of the active fleet—far above the historical norm of 30–40%.

• At current production rates, this backlog represents nearly 12 years of output.

• The average fleet age has risen to 15.1 years

  • Passenger fleet: 12.8 years

  • Cargo fleet: 19.6 years

  • Wide-body fleet: 14.5 years

• Over 5,000 aircraft remain in storage, despite airlines facing a shortage of viable airframes for operations.

These compounding issues are reshaping airline sustainability strategies, cost structures, and growth plans.

“Airlines are missing opportunities to strengthen their top line, improve environmental performance, and serve customers,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “No effort should be spared to accelerate solutions before the impact becomes even more acute.”

What’s Driving the Delays? A Convergence of Structural Failures

IATA’s analysis outlines a series of factors worsening the aircraft shortage:

1. Airframe vs. Engine Imbalance

Airframe production is recovering faster than engine output, leaving many newly-built aircraft parked without engines due to ongoing technical issues and maintenance demands.

2. Longer Certification Timelines

Certification for new aircraft types now takes 4–5 years, up from 12–24 months, delaying:

• Entry into service

• Long-haul fleet renewal

• Introduction of next-generation, fuel-efficient aircraft

3. Trade Tensions Increasing Production Costs

US–China tariffs on metals, electronics, and aerospace components have:

• Increased manufacturing and maintenance expenses

• Slowed supply chain flows

• Tightened availability of critical parts

4. Skilled Labor Shortages

A deficit of skilled technicians—especially in engine and component manufacturing—is forcing manufacturers to delay production ramp-ups.

5. Supply Chain Fragility

The aerospace supply chain relies heavily on single-source suppliers, making it vulnerable to:

• Economic shocks

• Tariff changes

• Labor shortages

• Raw material constraints

Even small disruptions can cascade into major production delays.

Environmental Impact: Fuel-Efficiency Gains Slowing Dramatically

Fleet aging is slowing aviation’s progress toward reducing emissions:

• Historical fuel-efficiency gains: ~2% per year

• 2025 fuel-efficiency improvement: 0.3%

• Projected 2026 improvement: 1%

Delayed fleet renewal means airlines must rely more heavily on older aircraft, impacting sustainability commitments and raising operational costs.

Air Cargo Fleet Faces Additional Risks

• Fewer passenger-to-cargo conversions as airlines retain jets for passenger service

• New-build wide-body freighters facing delays

• Older freighters nearing end-of-life limits

Cargo operators may soon face their own shortage crisis, further disrupting global supply chains.

Financial Impact: Bottlenecks to Cost Airlines Over USD 11 Billion in 2025

A joint IATA–Oliver Wyman study estimates:

• USD 4.2 billion in excess fuel costs from older aircraft

• USD 3.1 billion in extra maintenance costs

• USD 2.6 billion in increased engine leasing costs

• USD 1.4 billion in inventory costs due to stocking more spare parts

These costs are ultimately passed on to passengers, contributing to higher fares and reduced flight availability.

Solutions: How the Industry Can Break the Bottleneck

To speed recovery, IATA recommends:

1. Opening Up Aftermarket Repair Options

• Reduce dependency on OEM licensing

• Improve access to alternative materials and service providers

• Expand Maintenance, Repair, and Operations (MRO) flexibility

2. Enhancing Supply Chain Transparency

• Improve visibility across all supplier tiers

• Identify risks early and mitigate bottlenecks with real-time data

• Strengthen resilience against geopolitical and market volatility

3. Leveraging Data for Predictive Maintenance

• Use shared maintenance data platforms

• Pool spare parts

• Optimize inventory and reduce aircraft downtime

4. Expanding Repair and Parts Capacity

• Speed up repair approvals

• Increase access to Used Serviceable Material (USM)

• Invest in advanced manufacturing technologies (e.g., 3D printing)

Outlook: A Long Road to Normalization

IATA warns that without coordinated global action, bottlenecks may persist well into the 2030s, limiting:

• Airline growth

• Environmental progress

• Passenger connectivity

• Cargo capacity

The association stresses that solving aerospace supply chain challenges is essential for stabilizing the airline industry and enabling sustainable aviation growth.