Can Climate-Smart Agriculture Secure Uzbekistan’s Farms Against a Growing Water Crisis?

Uzbekistan can make agriculture more climate-resilient by shifting from water-intensive crops toward climate-smart farming, potentially cutting irrigation use by nearly 18% while increasing crop GVA by 59%. Achieving this will require governments, development partners and private investors to align financing, technology, land reforms, research and market infrastructure to strengthen water security, rural jobs and long-term agricultural growth.

Uzbekistan's agricultural sector is entering a decisive period as climate change, water scarcity and soil degradation threaten a farming system still heavily dependent on irrigated cotton and wheat. The World Bank's 2026 report Pathways to Climate-Smart Agriculture in Uzbekistan finds that climate-smart agriculture (CSA) could help the country use less water while producing more economic value. Agriculture contributes about 24.3 percent of GDP, provides roughly a quarter of employment and generates 20.4 percent of exports through agricultural, food and textile products. But rainfall could decline by around 20 percent by 2050, while flows in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya could fall by about 15 percent and 5 percent, respectively. At least 53 percent of Uzbekistan's soils are affected by salinity, making agricultural reform increasingly important for food security, jobs and rural incomes.

Water-Saving Agriculture Could Deliver Major Gains

Water is the most urgent challenge. Uzbekistan's agriculture uses about 52 billion cubic metres of water annually, while inefficient irrigation systems result in significant losses. The report argues that the country must produce more income from every cubic metre of water rather than relying on increased water supply.

Laser land levelling is among the most promising solutions. It can reduce irrigation water consumption by 20–25 percent and eventually increase yields by around 5–10 percent. Expanding the technology to two million hectares could save at least four billion cubic metres of water annually.

Changing what farmers grow could produce additional benefits. Millet needs only around 1,450 cubic metres of water per hectare and tolerates drought and moderate salinity. Sorghum requires around 2,450 cubic metres and can provide grain and animal feed. Replacing 10,000 hectares of cotton with sorghum in Karakalpakstan could save about 40 million cubic metres of water while increasing farmers' incomes by around 64 billion som.

Ambitious Reforms Could Raise Farm Value by 59 Percent

The report examines two possible pathways to 2030. Under a moderate scenario, land devoted to industrial crops, mainly cotton, would decline by 18.7 percent, while legumes, sorghum, potatoes, vegetables and fodder crops would expand. Laser land levelling would cover 50–60 percent of fields, and water-saving technologies would reach 70 percent of cotton fields and all rice-growing areas.

These measures could reduce national on-farm irrigation consumption by 5.8 percent while increasing crop gross value added (GVA) by 40.1 percent, equivalent to about 40.65 trillion som in 2023 prices.

The report, however, considers this insufficient to fully address future water pressures. Under a more ambitious scenario, industrial-crop area would fall by around 35 percent and adoption of climate-smart technologies would accelerate. Irrigation consumption could decline by 17.6 percent while crop GVA could increase by 59 percent, or approximately 59.8 trillion som.

The transition could also support employment. The moderate pathway could create around 61,400 conventional full-time jobs, while the ambitious scenario could generate approximately 96,000, particularly through orchard modernization, vineyards and water-saving technologies.

Public Spending Can Unlock Private Investment

For policymakers, one of the report's strongest messages is that Uzbekistan does not necessarily need to spend more on agriculture, it needs to spend existing resources more effectively. Public agricultural expenditure reached 27.2 trillion som, or about US$2.3 billion, in 2023, equivalent to 2.6 percent of GDP. Redirecting part of this support from conventional production toward climate-resilient agriculture could finance much of the transition.

The private sector has opportunities in drip irrigation, laser levelling, agricultural machinery, seed production, modern orchards, renewable-energy irrigation, cold storage, processing and logistics. Modernizing around 100,000 hectares of orchards could require approximately US$600 million, while expanding comprehensive water-saving technologies could require about US$2 billion.

But investment risks remain. Uncertain land tenure can discourage long-term spending, while unreliable electricity, weak seed systems and poorly designed subsidies can undermine projects. The report's assessment of drip irrigation shows that even efficient technologies can fail when equipment is poorly selected, installation is weak, or farmers cannot freely choose suppliers.

Development Partners Can Help Move From Pilots to Scale

International development partners can play an important role by combining finance with institutional reform. The report indicates that funding equipment alone will not be enough. Uzbekistan also needs stronger agricultural research, extension services, farmer training, soil monitoring, seed systems and market infrastructure.

Better soil and groundwater management could save an estimated 500–800 cubic metres of leaching water per hectare in Karakalpakstan and Khorezm. More precise fertilizer management, combined with organic inputs, could reduce farmers' costs by at least 15–20 percent.

Development partners can also support agricultural market information systems, certification laboratories, cold chains, processing facilities and export development. These investments are critical because farmers will have little incentive to move from cotton and wheat into millet, sorghum, horticulture and other climate-resilient products without reliable markets.

The report recommends redirecting subsidies toward CSA, improving medium-term agricultural finance, strengthening land rights, modernizing research and extension services, improving irrigation governance and expanding processing and logistics infrastructure. For government, development institutions and private investors, the potential returns are substantial: an ambitious transition could reduce on-farm irrigation consumption by nearly 18 percent, increase crop GVA by 59 percent and create around 96,000 conventional full-time jobs. Climate-smart agriculture therefore represents not only an environmental response, but a potential strategy for water security, private investment, rural employment and long-term economic resilience.