Heat Stress Could Cost Ethiopia, Ghana and Senegal $67 Billion a Year by 2040, ILO Warns

The research projects combined annual GDP losses of around US$67 billion by 2040, compared with the historical reference period, even under a low-emissions pathway.

Rising workplace temperatures are already reducing working time and economic output in Ethiopia, Ghana and Senegal, according to new studies from the International Labour Organization. The research projects combined annual GDP losses of around US$67 billion by 2040, compared with the historical reference period, even under a low-emissions pathway. Reduced working time under that scenario could reach the equivalent of approximately 2.46 million full-time jobs across the three countries.

The projected annual economic losses include US$33.3 billion in Ethiopia, US$23.2 billion in Ghana and US$10.5 billion in Senegal. These estimates reflect the growing strain that workplace heat could place on productivity, livelihoods and national economies over the coming decades. The employment figures measure working time lost in full-time job equivalents, rather than a count of workers expected to lose their jobs.

Agriculture and construction face particular exposure because much of their work is physically demanding and takes place outdoors. Heat also affects manufacturing, transport, trade and services, with workers and businesses in the informal economy facing pressures of their own. The studies found substantial additional losses of working time and output in all three countries during 2023, showing that the damage is already occurring.

Ethiopia, Ghana and Senegal face different patterns of heat-related losses

Ethiopia lost working time equivalent to more than one million additional full-time jobs in 2023 compared with an average year in the historical reference period. Agriculture accounted for around three-quarters of those losses, reflecting the sector's exposure to rising workplace temperatures. By 2040, lost working time could reach approximately 1.78 million full-time job equivalents under a low-emissions pathway.

Ghana recorded additional working-time losses equivalent to more than 345,000 full-time jobs in 2023, with agriculture accounting for around two-thirds of the total. The country's projected losses could rise to approximately 550,000 full-time job equivalents by 2040 under the same emissions pathway. Senegal recorded nearly 72,000 additional full-time job equivalents lost in 2023, concentrated particularly in services and agriculture, with losses projected to reach around 129,000 by 2040.

Safer working hours and income protection can reduce the damage

ILO Regional Director for Africa Fanfan Rwanyindo Kayirangwa described heat stress as an existing employment, health and economic problem that requires coordinated action. She called on governments, employers and workers to combine stronger occupational safety and health measures with social protection, climate adaptation and economic planning. Protecting workers from excessive heat, she said, also protects livelihoods, businesses and the ability of economies to withstand disruption.

Practical measures identified in the studies include moving work away from the hottest hours, introducing suitable work-rest cycles and providing shade, drinking water and cooling facilities. Stronger workplace heat monitoring, occupational safety standards and awareness of heat stress symptoms can help workers and employers recognise and manage the risks. Social protection is particularly important for informal workers who cannot afford to shorten their working day without losing income needed for necessities.

Responses need to match the conditions of different sectors and the realities of working life in each country. Dialogue between governments, employers and workers will be essential to designing measures that are practical and effective. The findings place worker protection and support for businesses adapting to higher temperatures within the wider effort to make the transition to environmentally sustainable economies fair.

Six-country research links climate projections with labour and economic data

The Ethiopia, Ghana and Senegal reports form part of a six-country research initiative that also covers Lebanon, the Maldives and Sri Lanka. The ILO commissioned the studies with support from the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the Vulnerable 20 Finance Ministers, with financing through the CVF-V20 Joint Multi-Donor Fund. Researchers combined climate projections, labour market data and economic modelling to assess current and future effects on productivity, employment and national economies.

The research shows that substantial workplace heat losses could persist even under a low-emissions pathway, adapting an important part of economic and employment planning. As temperatures rise, governments and businesses will need to address workers' exposure alongside the financial pressures that can prevent people from taking protective breaks. The ILO's guidelines for a just transition provide a framework for addressing these employment and social challenges as countries respond to climate and environmental change.