Climate Hazards Deepen Poverty in MENA, Reveals Alarming New World Bank Report

A World Bank study reveals that nearly all poor populations in MENA are exposed to extreme climate hazards like heat, drought, floods, and pollution. Yemen, Egypt, and Morocco emerge as critical hotspots where poverty, vulnerability, and climate risks dangerously intersect.

A powerful new study from the World Bank’s Poverty and Equity Global Department, in collaboration with the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), has delivered a sobering diagnosis of the Middle East and North Africa’s escalating climate crisis. Authored by Chitra Balasubramanian, Sandra Baquie, and Alan Fuchs, the research draws on satellite data, household surveys, and geospatial modeling to assess how four major climate hazards—extreme heat, drought, floods, and air pollution are disproportionately affecting the region’s poorest populations. The findings are staggering: almost the entire extreme poor population in MENA is exposed to at least one climate hazard. The paper’s high-resolution mapping, down to 10-kilometer grids, reveals that poverty and climate risk do not merely overlap; they amplify one another, with severe implications for both human development and long-term stability.

A Region Gripped by the Triple Environmental Challenge

The study highlights a “triple environmental challenge” facing the MENA region: intensifying extreme heat, recurring droughts, and dangerously polluted air. In Saudi Arabia, the Eastern Province experiences Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures (WBGT) exceeding 41.5°C, levels that significantly increase the risk of heat-related illnesses, especially among outdoor workers. At the other end of the spectrum, Jizan in the country’s southwest averages a milder 21°C, underscoring the region’s climatic extremes. But heat is only one part of the story. The report shows a dramatic uptick in flood risks, including recent disasters like the Libyan floods that displaced hundreds of thousands. In countries like Yemen and Egypt, key urban and agricultural areas are now increasingly flood-prone. Meanwhile, air quality across the region has deteriorated to the point where nearly all countries exceed the WHO’s recommended daily PM2.5 limits, with major urban hubs like Tehran, Riyadh, Cairo, and Baghdad facing especially high exposure due to industrial emissions, traffic, and waste burning.

Rural Collapse and Agricultural Insecurity

In rural areas, the impacts of climate change are taking a more insidious form, with degraded soil, failing crops, and shrinking water supplies. In Morocco’s Nord Ouest and Iran’s Tehran and Khorasan provinces, declining rainfall and rising temperatures are creating widening agricultural yield gaps. Tehran, which houses 11 percent of Iran’s population, has seen rainfall drop by 67 percent, forcing nearly a quarter of its farmers to abandon their livelihoods. In Syria’s Aleppo region, farmers face a bleak outlook as droughts and pollution threaten food security. Egypt’s Nile Delta, long considered the country’s agricultural heartland, is now grappling with water scarcity, putting national food production and employment at risk. The study identifies these rural collapses as a major driver of economic displacement, pushing more people into deeper poverty and forcing migration to already overstretched urban areas.

Urban Exposure: Heat and Pollution in the Cities

The study also reveals that MENA’s urban centers are becoming climate danger zones. Cities like Mecca, Jeddah, Dubai, Giza, and Baghdad are now hotspots for dual exposure to both extreme heat and high levels of air pollution. In Makkah province, roughly 20 percent of the population lives under this combined hazard. In Giza, one of Egypt’s largest cities, over 8 percent of the population faces the same. These areas are often industrial and densely populated, creating a perfect storm of vulnerability. The burden of exposure is not shared equally, however, lower-income communities in these cities lack the air conditioning, healthcare, or housing quality to cope with these risks, making the effects of climate hazards not just more widespread, but more unjust.

Multidimensional Vulnerability: More Than Just Income

What sets this report apart is its multidimensional approach to vulnerability. Instead of relying solely on income-based poverty data, the researchers incorporate a range of variables: access to markets, education, healthcare, financial services, forest cover, agricultural output, and even nighttime light intensity as a proxy for economic activity. Using this method, they identify specific subregions where vulnerability surpasses a critical 40 percent threshold. These include Syria’s Al Qunaytirah, plagued by conflict, poor infrastructure, and food insecurity, as well as parts of Yemen like Sana’a and Hadramaut, where a toxic mix of war, hunger, and environmental degradation leaves communities in desperate need of support. The study finds that these vulnerable populations often lack basic services like clean water, electricity, and sanitation, leaving them exposed to compounding risks with no buffer or means to recover.

Pinpointing the Hotspots: Where Poverty, Exposure, and Risk Collide

The research identifies the ten most at-risk sub-regions in MENA where poverty, climate hazard exposure, and vulnerability intersect at crisis levels. These include Al Daqahliyah in Egypt, Nord Ouest in Morocco, and several Yemeni regions like Ibb, Taizz, and Dhamar. In Al Daqahliyah alone, over 2.4 million poor people are exposed to hazards and live in highly vulnerable conditions. Egypt, in fact, has the largest number of poor people exposed to all four climate hazards: heat, drought, pollution, and flooding. Djibouti stands out with the highest proportion of its poor population affected by heat and air pollution. In Morocco, poor communities face escalating drought without the infrastructure or economic support to adapt. These findings present a clear path forward for policy: climate action must be targeted at these convergence zones to be effective.

The report paints a detailed, urgent portrait of the climate crisis in MENA, emphasizing that climate risk is not just an environmental issue—it is a development emergency. The study’s innovative use of granular data, remote sensing, and spatial poverty mapping offers governments and aid agencies a blueprint for intervention. The message is clear: to prevent a climate-driven humanitarian crisis, investment must be directed toward the most vulnerable communities, with solutions that are localized, inclusive, and long-term.