2025 Monsoon Set to Be Wetter Than Usual, Says IMD’s April Forecast

As per IMD’s forecast, there is a 59% probability that the seasonal rainfall will fall in the “above normal” or higher category, meaning rainfall exceeding 104% of the LPA.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued its first-stage Long-Range Forecast (LRF) for the 2025 southwest monsoon season (June to September), indicating that the country is likely to experience above-normal rainfall during this vital agricultural period. According to the forecast, the seasonal rainfall is expected to be 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm, with a model error margin of ±5%. This news comes as a hopeful sign for agriculture, water resource management, and overall economic stability in India.

As per IMD’s forecast, there is a 59% probability that the seasonal rainfall will fall in the “above normal” or higher category, meaning rainfall exceeding 104% of the LPA. The prediction is based on advanced dynamical and statistical modeling techniques, incorporating the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting system. The MME integrates outputs from multiple global coupled climate models, including IMD’s in-house Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), enhancing the reliability of long-range predictions.

ENSO & IOD Conditions: Influences on the 2025 Monsoon

ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation)

At present, neutral ENSO conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific. However, atmospheric circulation patterns are resembling La Niña-like conditions, which historically correlate with a wetter Indian monsoon. Climate model forecasts suggest these neutral ENSO conditions are likely to persist throughout the 2025 monsoon season, offering a stable atmospheric backdrop for healthy rainfall distribution.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral, and most climate models indicate that it will continue in this state through the season. While a positive IOD often enhances monsoon activity over India, neutral conditions are still favorable and pose no adverse risk to rainfall intensity at this stage.

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Eurasian Snow Cover: A Key Indicator for Monsoon Strength

The snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia was reported to be below normal during the winter and spring months (January–March 2025). This observation is particularly significant, as historical data indicates an inverse relationship between Eurasian snow cover and Indian monsoon rainfall. Simply put, lower snow cover often corresponds with stronger monsoon rains, further supporting IMD's optimistic projection.

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Forecast Dissemination Strategy: A Two-Stage System

Since 2003, IMD has implemented a two-stage LRF strategy for predicting the monsoon. In 2021, this approach was upgraded to include both monthly and seasonal forecasts using sophisticated models.

1. First Stage (April Forecast):

   • Quantitative and probabilistic forecast for the entire country.

   • Spatial distribution of rainfall predictions using tercile categories: above normal, normal, and below normal.

2. Second Stage (May Forecast):

   • Updated forecast for the season.

   • Regional breakdown: Northwest India, Central India, South Peninsula, Northeast India, and Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ).

   • Forecast for June rainfall and second half of the season.

In addition, monthly forecasts are released at the end of June, July, and August, providing dynamic updates as the season progresses.

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Regional Rainfall Outlook

The spatial distribution map of the April 2025 forecast indicates that most parts of the country are likely to receive above-normal rainfall. However, some pockets in Northwest India, Northeast India, and parts of the Southern Peninsula may experience below-normal precipitation. Certain areas remain in the neutral category, where no dominant rainfall trend is projected.

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Importance of Accurate Monsoon Forecasting

The southwest monsoon accounts for more than 70% of India’s annual rainfall and is a critical driver of the nation’s agricultural output, drinking water supply, hydropower generation, and overall economic stability. Accurate seasonal forecasting enables government agencies, farmers, and industries to prepare better and make informed decisions.

The IMD’s forecast for a wetter-than-usual monsoon in 2025 brings optimism, especially following years of fluctuating rainfall patterns linked to climate variability. The department will issue its updated second-stage forecast in the last week of May, providing a more detailed and region-specific outlook.

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Final Thoughts

While the April 2025 forecast suggests favorable monsoon conditions, it's important to note that intra-seasonal variations and extreme weather events remain possible. The IMD will continue to monitor oceanic and atmospheric parameters, updating its predictions to support strategic planning and disaster preparedness.

For now, the projection of an above-normal monsoon offers a positive outlook for farmers, policymakers, and the broader economy alike.