WMO Warns of Record Global Heat Likely Through 2029, Escalating Climate Risks

“Every fraction of a degree of warming counts. As the planet heats up, so does the frequency and severity of climate-related disasters,” the report states.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a stark warning in its latest global climate update, forecasting that Earth’s temperatures will remain at or near record highs through 2029, with alarming implications for societies, ecosystems, and sustainable development worldwide.

According to the WMO’s new multi-year climate outlook, the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature between 2025 and 2029 is projected to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline). This prediction underscores the intensifying trajectory of climate change and reinforces the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions globally.

“Every fraction of a degree of warming counts. As the planet heats up, so does the frequency and severity of climate-related disasters,” the report states.

High Probability of Record-Breaking Temperatures

The WMO report outlines several high-probability forecasts that highlight the severity of the current climate path:

• There is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will exceed 2024, the current record-holder for the warmest year.

• There is an 86% chance that one of these years will see temperatures more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

• The likelihood that the five-year average (2025–2029) will surpass the 1.5°C threshold has surged to 70%, up from 47% in last year’s report, and 32% in 2023.

While the Paris Agreement aims to limit long-term global warming to well below 2°C—and ideally no more than 1.5°C—these forecasts suggest the world is quickly approaching, and temporarily breaching, critical thresholds.

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Rising Temperatures, Rising Risks

The implications of these warming trends are vast and far-reaching. Each increment of warming increases the risk of climate-related disasters, including:

• More frequent and intense heatwaves

• Disruptive rainfall events leading to floods and landslides

• Prolonged and severe droughts

• Accelerated melting of glaciers and polar ice

• Ocean warming and acidification

• Global sea-level rise

These impacts threaten food and water security, human health, biodiversity, and economic stability, particularly in vulnerable regions such as small island developing states, sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia.

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A Call for Urgent Action

While temporary exceedances of 1.5°C do not mean the Paris target has been permanently breached, the WMO stresses that prolonged and repeated overshoots increase the risk of triggering irreversible climate tipping points. These include the collapse of ice sheets, dieback of tropical rainforests, and changes in major ocean currents—all of which would further accelerate warming.

“The increasing probability of reaching 1.5°C, even temporarily, should be seen as a wake-up call,” said a senior WMO official. “We must act now to avoid permanent overshoot.”

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Driving Forces: El Niño, Greenhouse Gases, and Global Trends

The WMO attributes current and projected warming trends to several reinforcing factors:

• The persistent rise in greenhouse gas concentrations, especially CO₂, methane, and nitrous oxide.

• The recurrence of El Niño conditions, which temporarily boost global temperatures.

• Continued fossil fuel use, deforestation, and other human-induced pressures on the planet’s climate systems.

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Building Resilience Through Early Warnings

As part of its global mandate, WMO continues to support the Early Warnings for All initiative, aiming to provide universal access to early warning systems by 2027. Such systems are crucial in helping communities anticipate and prepare for climate extremes.

In the face of rising temperatures, better monitoring, forecasting, and early warning infrastructure are essential to saving lives, reducing economic losses, and guiding climate-resilient planning.

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Global Responsibility and Opportunity

The report concludes by reaffirming the importance of collective global action, including:

• Accelerating the clean energy transition

• Strengthening climate adaptation and finance for vulnerable nations

• Investing in climate data systems and early warning networks

• Enhancing commitments under the Paris Agreement

As global leaders prepare for the 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), the WMO’s findings add urgency to calls for bolder emissions reductions and climate financing commitments.

“The climate is changing faster than expected—but so can our response,” the WMO report asserts.

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