Germany's Trade Balancing Act: China vs. U.S.

Preliminary data shows China nearly overtook the U.S. as Germany's largest trading partner in early 2025. German exports to the U.S. declined with higher tariffs, while trade with China rose. With new U.S. tariffs, Germany's exports outlook is challenged, and China may regain the top partner spot.

Preliminary data indicates that China came close to surpassing the United States as Germany's largest trading partner during the first half of 2025. This development follows a decline in German exports to the U.S., influenced by increased tariffs.

From January to June, German imports and exports with the U.S. amounted to approximately 125 billion euros, while trade with China was 122.8 billion euros, according to Reuters. Vincent Stamer, an economist at Commerzbank, described the margin between the U.S. and China in Germany's trade as 'razor-thin.'

German exports to the U.S. decreased by 3.9% to 77.6 billion euros in the first six months compared to the same period last year, with headwinds expected to intensify due to new U.S. tariffs, potentially slowing German exports to the U.S. by 20% to 25% over the next two years. Meanwhile, imported goods from China surged by 10.7%, suggesting difficulties for Germany in replacing Chinese imports.

(With inputs from agencies.)