Heat, Floods, and Poverty: How Climate Change is Reshaping Human Capital in ECA

The World Bank warns that climate change is eroding human capital in Eastern and Central Europe and Central Asia, damaging health, education, jobs, and livelihoods while pushing vulnerable groups deeper into poverty. Without robust data and targeted policies, both climate shocks and the green transition risk worsening inequality and driving widespread displacement.

The World Bank’s Office of the Regional Director for Human Development in Europe and Central Asia, working with evidence from institutes such as the European Environment Agency, UNICEF, the International Labour Organization, and the World Health Organization, has released a report warning of the escalating toll of climate change on human capital in Eastern and Central Europe and Central Asia. Supported by the World Bank’s Climate Support Facility, the study draws on academic research, humanitarian assessments, and news sources to highlight how rising temperatures, floods, droughts, and wildfires are eroding the foundations of development, health, education, jobs, and livelihoods. Europe is the fastest-warming continent, while Central Asia is heating at nearly twice the global average. The result is a relentless cycle of disaster and recovery that is pushing families into poverty, undermining resilience, and driving migration.

Health Systems Crumbling Under Heat and Pollution

The most immediate casualty of climate change in the region is human health. Central and Eastern Europe has seen the fastest growth in vulnerability to extreme heat, with UNICEF warning that nearly half of the region’s children are exposed to frequent and prolonged heatwaves. Mortality spikes during heat events are staggering: the 2010 Russian heatwave killed an estimated 55,000 people, while the summer of 2022 caused over 8,000 excess deaths across European ECA countries, disproportionately affecting women and younger age groups. Air pollution worsened by wildfires and dust storms adds to the crisis. A 2021 dust storm in Uzbekistan raised pollution levels thirtyfold, while forest fires in Ukraine heightened respiratory risks amid the war. Cold snaps, too, bring deadly outcomes, as seen in Tajikistan, where hospitals without power and vaccines faced surging maternal and infant deaths. Floods across the region have killed thousands and injured tens of thousands in two decades, while vector-borne diseases like West Nile virus are spreading further north. The report underscores that women, minorities, and the poor are the least protected, whether trapped in overheated dwellings or excluded from emergency relief.

Poverty Deepened by Disaster and Transition Costs

For many families, climate shocks are tipping points into poverty. In Serbia, the 2013 floods pushed an estimated 125,000 people below the poverty line. Across the region, nearly 90,000 homes have been destroyed by floods since 2000, while livestock and crop losses have decimated rural livelihoods. In Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan, the poorest rural households face the steepest losses from floods, droughts, and collapsing livestock production. The Roma community has been particularly vulnerable, with informal settlements often bypassed in reconstruction and aid efforts. At the same time, the costs of the green transition are unevenly distributed. When Ukraine raised gas tariffs in 2015, many households not covered by subsidies became “fuel poor,” spending more than 10 percent of their income on utilities. Simulations suggest that households in Kosovo and North Macedonia may see consumption fall by up to five percent due to higher electricity costs. Without careful policy design, decarbonization risks deepening inequality even as it promises long-term sustainability.

Education Disrupted by Disasters and Rising Heat

Schools are increasingly caught in the crossfire of climate change. Floods in Serbia, Albania, and Tajikistan have destroyed dozens of schools, forcing children into tents or online classes. In Kazakhstan, more than 3,500 children missed exams in 2024 after floods shuttered 88 schools, with 823,000 students enrolled in summer remedial programs to recover learning losses. Cold waves have also triggered widespread school closures in Azerbaijan and Eastern Europe. Rising temperatures, meanwhile, degrade classroom conditions and cognitive performance. The European Environment Agency estimates that more than 80 percent of schools in Central and Eastern Europe are located in high heat-risk areas. For children, this means not only fewer school days but also diminished learning capacity, threatening long-term productivity and widening social divides.

Livelihoods and Migration in Flux

Jobs and livelihoods across the region are already being reshaped by both climate shocks and the green transition. The 2014 floods in the Western Balkans destroyed farmland and factories, wiping out tens of thousands of jobs in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Heat stress is reducing work hours, particularly in outdoor and physically demanding sectors, with projected productivity losses of up to eight percent by 2080 in Southeastern Europe. Women often carry a hidden burden after disasters, taking on unpaid cleanup and care work when schools and institutions close. Meanwhile, the energy transition is forcing structural change: Poland’s coal sector, once employing more than 400,000, now has fewer than 100,000 workers, devastating local economies. Bosnia, Serbia, and Kosovo face similar risks, with thousands of older, low-skilled miners confronting bleak prospects in depressed labor markets. Younger workers may adapt more easily to green jobs, but women remain underrepresented in the STEM fields that drive these opportunities. Migration has already become a survival strategy. The 2014 Balkan floods displaced 140,000 people, while a 2020 dam collapse uprooted more than 100,000 people in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Wildfires in Türkiye displaced 81,000 people in 2021. Longer-term projections suggest that more than three percent of Central Asia’s population could be forced into internal migration by mid-century in search of viable livelihoods.

A Call for Data and Targeted Policy Action

The World Bank report concludes with two urgent findings. First, climate change is already dismantling human capital in Eastern and Central Europe and Central Asia, producing higher mortality, poorer health, disrupted education, job losses, and displacement. Second, the evidence base remains patchy, with little understanding of compounding effects such as how ill health worsens education outcomes, or how displacement strains already weak social protection systems. To respond effectively, governments and international partners need robust, region-specific data and tailored policy design. Without such measures, the dual pressures of climate change and the green transition risk undermining not only economies but also the very fabric of human capital on which the region’s future depends.