From Coal to Clean: How China’s Counties Can Drive the 2060 Net-Zero Transition

The ADB, with Tianjin University, highlights that China’s counties and small towns, responsible for over 60% of national emissions are pivotal to meeting the 2030 and 2060 carbon goals. Tailored clean energy solutions, policy support, and innovative financing could turn these local hubs from coal-dependent emitters into engines of green growth.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB), in collaboration with Tianjin University and international consultants, has produced a compelling analysis of how the People’s Republic of China (PRC) can push forward its low-carbon energy transition by focusing on small and medium-sized towns (SMTs). These towns, located within the country’s 2,846 counties, hold the key to achieving China’s dual carbon goals: peaking emissions by 2030 and reaching carbon neutrality by 2060. Counties contribute over 60 percent of the nation’s total emissions, making them pivotal arenas where industrial output, population growth, and household consumption converge. For China, the fate of its climate strategy lies not only in megacities like Beijing and Shanghai but also in the quieter counties where coal still burns in boilers, where heating demand in winter and cooling demand in summer strain outdated grids, and where policies must find their sharpest local edge.

From Pilot Counties to National Blueprints

To better understand this landscape, researchers classified all counties using a sophisticated clustering model based on 27 indicators, from demographic density to energy infrastructure. This analysis led to the selection of Fengning in Hebei Province and Fengyang in Anhui Province as pilot sites. Fengning reflects the energy realities of the north: long, frigid winters, entrenched coal dependence, and worsening air quality. Fengyang, by contrast, typifies the south, where industries are energy-intensive, summers scorch with rising air-conditioning demand, and households increasingly require heating in colder months. Together, they illustrate how varied China’s challenges are across geography. Household surveys of more than 1,100 families showed limited awareness of efficiency measures, continued reliance on fossil fuels, and a lack of infrastructure to support electric vehicles. By tackling these issues head-on, the pilots aim to create replicable strategies for the rest of the country.

The Weight of Old Systems

The study finds that coal still dominates the county-level energy mix, while renewables, though abundant in potential, remain marginal. Seasonal imbalances between supply and demand create shortages in both electricity and heating, leaving households vulnerable. Many industrial sectors consume far more energy than national benchmarks, with minimal recovery of waste heat. In rural areas, outdated power distribution networks result in unreliable supply, while insufficient charging facilities stall the adoption of electric vehicles. Advanced technologies such as heat pumps, industrial storage, and integrated energy systems exist but are hampered by high costs and poor market incentives. Compounding this is a lack of effective market tools: carbon trading is underutilized, green certificates are rarely traded, and tariff structures are too blunt to drive efficiency. Financial constraints and weak public awareness round out a picture of entrenched inertia, underscoring how deeply systemic the challenge is.

Practical Solutions Waiting for Scale

Despite these obstacles, the brief identifies a set of practical and mature technical solutions ready for wider deployment. Rooftop solar panels and distributed wind turbines stand out as scalable renewables, particularly if bundled at the county level to qualify for green certificates and carbon credits. Biomass briquette boilers, powered by agricultural waste, could replace coal heating while generating new rural income streams. Heat pumps and smart heating systems promise cleaner winters, especially if pricing reforms reward households for conserving energy. In the industry, energy-saving grate coolers and waste heat recovery systems could reduce inefficiencies in cement and glassmaking. Retrofitting existing buildings, improving insulation, and integrating rooftop solar could lower emissions from public and residential sectors alike. Meanwhile, integrated electric vehicle charging hubs, combining solar panels, storage, and vehicle-to-grid technology, would help unlock the transport transition. These technologies are proven, but their rollout depends on enabling policies, reliable financing, and the trust of households and enterprises alike.

Building the Path to Net Zero

The report argues that the success of these solutions hinges on a supportive policy ecosystem and innovative financing mechanisms. Counties must embrace whole-of-county approaches to distributed renewables, streamlining land leasing, grid connection, and permitting. Standards for biomass fuels and boilers must be introduced, while carbon trading should be expanded to include district heating and heat pumps. Industry requires targeted subsidies, tax breaks, and performance contracts, while residents need incentives to adopt efficient appliances and embrace green lifestyles. Financing remains a bottleneck, with most county projects too small to attract commercial banks. Public–private partnerships, green bonds, concessional loans from multilateral development banks, and government-backed subsidies could all help de-risk investments. Just as critical is the creation of robust county-level data systems. Today, energy and emissions data are collected largely at national and provincial levels, leaving local governments blind to their own trajectories. The report calls for institutional frameworks, trained statistical staff, standardized methodologies, and transparent public platforms to close this gap.

The brief concludes by urging counties to develop their own carbon neutrality road maps, aligned with national goals but tailored to local realities. These should define targets, identify mitigation strategies, and translate them into actionable policies and projects, with clear responsibilities and timelines. Continuous monitoring and periodic adjustments will ensure strategies remain relevant as technologies evolve and circumstances change. Above all, the study stresses that the fight for carbon neutrality will be won or lost in China’s counties. In the furnaces of local industries, the rooftops of village homes, and the grids of small towns, the transition must unfold. With the right blend of policy, financing, technology, and public engagement, these overlooked centers of daily life could become the engines of China’s green revolution, ensuring that the world’s largest emitter stays on course toward its historic net-zero commitment.