WMO Warns El Niño Could Trigger Extreme Weather Worldwide

UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the development as an urgent warning, saying El Niño would add further pressure to a world already experiencing the impacts of climate change.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean and are likely to influence weather patterns across the globe in the coming months, increasing the risk of extreme heat, droughts, heavy rainfall and other climate-related hazards.

According to the latest WMO update, there is an 80 percent probability that El Niño will emerge during the June to August 2026 period. Forecasts suggest the phenomenon is highly likely to persist through the remainder of the year, with the chance of continuation until at least November exceeding 90 percent.

Scientists say unusually warm ocean waters in the central and eastern Pacific are driving the development of El Niño. Temperatures beneath the ocean surface are currently more than six degrees Celsius above average in some areas, creating a large reservoir of heat that is feeding warming at the surface and strengthening the climate pattern.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the development as an urgent warning, saying El Niño would add further pressure to a world already experiencing the impacts of climate change.

Higher temperatures expected across most of the world

El Niño is one of the most powerful naturally occurring climate patterns on Earth. It develops when ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific become significantly warmer than normal, affecting atmospheric circulation and weather systems around the world.

While every El Niño event behaves differently, the phenomenon is known for increasing global temperatures and altering rainfall patterns across multiple continents. WMO forecasts indicate that above-average temperatures are likely in nearly every region of the world during the June to August season.

The organization says these warmer conditions could increase the risk of heat stress, intensify drought in regions experiencing reduced rainfall and contribute to more severe weather events where moisture levels rise.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said governments and humanitarian organizations should prepare for the possibility of a moderate to strong El Niño event. She noted that the previous El Niño episode in 2023–2024 ranked among the five strongest on record and contributed to the record global temperatures observed in 2024.

Scientists emphasize that climate change is not believed to increase the frequency of El Niño events. A warmer atmosphere and ocean can, however, amplify the impacts by providing additional energy and moisture that fuel extreme weather.

Some regions face drought while others prepare for heavier rainfall

The expected weather impacts vary widely from region to region. El Niño is often linked to wetter-than-normal conditions in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and areas of Central Asia.

Drier conditions are typically observed across Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia. Regional climate outlooks already suggest that several areas may experience below-average rainfall in the months ahead.

The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum is forecasting a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall during a critical rainy season, while South Asia could see weaker monsoon rains. Central America is also expected to experience warmer and drier conditions.

El Niño can influence tropical cyclone activity as well. During the northern hemisphere summer, warmer Pacific waters often support hurricane development in the eastern and central Pacific while reducing hurricane activity in the Atlantic. This has contributed to forecasts of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year.

WMO says early warnings and seasonal climate forecasts give governments valuable time to prepare. By strengthening disaster preparedness, protecting vulnerable communities and planning for potential climate impacts, countries can reduce risks to lives, livelihoods and economies before extreme weather strikes.