COLUMN-At Farnborough, tech and geopolitics drive aviation innovation

Vertical Aerospace unveiled its electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) "air taxi" at the Farnborough airshow, marking a significant breakthrough in the development of sustainable and efficient air travel.

On the first day of the Farnborough airshow last week, an unusual-looking craft with upward-pointing propellers along its wings rose into the sky from the main runway: the new ​electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) lightweight "air taxi" from Britain’s Vertical Aerospace. The Farnborough show and accompanying military and civilian aviation trade event, which take place every other year, have long showcased ​a mix of breakthroughs, breathlessly announced sales of existing aircraft types and a look into the future.

This year, however, there ‌was a ​greater sense of urgency and an increasingly dramatic pace of change, fuelled by new developments in materials and power storage, chips and artificial intelligence alongside deteriorating geopolitical relations. Vertical Aerospace's first public takeoff flight of its "air taxi" is a case in point. Without huge leaps forward in battery power, electric motors and other airframe elements, it would be unable to get airborne – let alone achieve its claimed 100-mile (160-km)-plus flying range.

Despite those developments, it and other companies struggled to find investment in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. But the company says it has since received millions in backing from the British ‌government, reporting interest in using the aircraft for the military, particularly special forces. Demand for new aircraft has rebounded from a dip during the pandemic in 2020 and many aviation and associated manufacturing firms are racing to keep up, particularly if they can deliver capabilities sought by militaries facing rising tensions in Europe and the Pacific and war in Ukraine and the Gulf. "Defence was about 30% of our business only a few years back and now it's more than 50%," said Matthew Pritchard, vice president for sales and customer engagement at Ontic, which supplies equipment to multiple major aviation manufacturers as well as maintenance and repair services.

"But across the board, the sector is struggling to keep up with demand. During the pandemic a lot of people left the industry, facilities were shut down. We are still coming back from that." The ‌result brings several paradoxes: major aviation manufacturers, particularly Boeing and Airbus, now have multiple years of orders for airliner types dating back several decades. Older jet fighters such as the 1990s-era Eurofighter and Lockheed Martin F-16 are also seeing ongoing and often rising sales on the back of growing tensions.

Simultaneously, other new technology is leaping forward. Dutch company Robin Radar Systems – which started out ‌building small airport radars to detect flocks of birds but has since moved into anti-drone technology – was just one of several that told this columnist their firms were undergoing very rapid growth. In total, Farnborough recorded almost $85 billion in deals, both military and civilian – plus a host of announcements from missile manufacturers Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and European conglomerate MBDA aimed at driving down the cost of delivering air defence and strike missiles.

LEARNING IN REAL TIME With the U.S. now racing to replace now heavily depleted stocks of high-tech long-range and air defence missiles such as the Tomahawk and Patriot, the show included a large number of firms offering more "affordable" one-way strike missiles as well as long-term reusable drones.

"We are literally learning in real time," said former RAF Typhoon jet fighter pilot Andrew Hawkes, now leading the European rollout of defence tech firm Shield AI's stealth vertical takeoff X Bat drone, describing the "evolving threat environment" as a key driver of developments. Shield AI – founded in 2015 by former U.S. Navy SEAL Brandon Tseng – ⁠is already operating its ​non-stealth V-Bat in Ukraine and other combat zones. The company says the new X-Bat will fly for the first ⁠time before the end of the year under the control of an autonomous AI pilot, and, when operational, will be able to carry all the same weapons as a much more expensive U.S.-made piloted F-35 for a fraction of the cost.

While the basic engine for the X-Bat is one that has been fitted for years to U.S. fighters such as the F-15 Eagle, the drone benefits from new composite materials and a dramatic reduction in the weight of the computing ⁠power required for the on-board AI systems. Other projects can still take years to move from the design screen to production. Some of the largest announcements in Farnborough this year related to the Anglo-Italian-Japanese Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), intended to deliver a new "sixth-generation" stealth fighter into service by 2035.

Such a delivery schedule for a major new combat aircraft is a big acceleration from the most recent generation of equivalent aircraft such as the U.S. F-35, which ​began its design life in the 1990s and only entered service this decade. With European and Pacific nations increasingly nervous over the long-term commitment of the U.S. to their defence, that collaboration is also seen as increasingly important by its member nations – with Canada announcing last week that it was also joining GCAP as an observer.

Under U.S. President Donald Trump, ⁠Washington has pledged that it will not export its own equivalent fighter, the Boeing-manufactured F-47 – the number a reference to Trump as the 47th president – which is slated to fly for the first time in 2028. The wars in Ukraine and now the Gulf have supercharged demand for new military tech. Design processes increasingly take advantage of lessons from Ukraine, where engineers say they face a constant battle to stay ahead of new forms of Russian jamming including against Elon Musk's Starlink system that had been key to the ⁠operation ​of multiple drone types. MANUFACTURING REVOLUTION

Some – like the Australian-designed “Ghost Bat” also displayed near the runway in Farnborough – have been produced by major aviation firms like Boeing. U.S. drone firm General Atomics – designer of the Predator, Reaper and several other types heavily used worldwide – is also working on an unmanned stealth plane to operate alongside mainstream military aircraft. Others, however, come from new entrants in the market. At Farnborough, fast-growing autonomous weapons maker Anduril unveiled its new autonomous twin-rotor vertical takeoff Thunder drone; it is designed to operate at low altitude over a highly contested battlefield and both replace and augment existing high-tech attack helicopters alongside other cheaper drones.

Horizon Aircraft, a Canadian startup that appears roughly a year behind its unrelated UK counterpart Vertical Aerospace, also credits material and battery breakthroughs with allowing the development of its own ⁠manned vertical takeoff aircraft. “Manufacturing technology has come pretty far in the composite space, led by Formula One and other aerospace folks," said Phil Kelly, senior vice president for business development and another former British jet pilot. "That allows us to build lighter, stronger."

As with the slightly smaller Vertical Aerospace "air taxi", Horizon’s aircraft uses electric rotors in the wings powered by batteries distributed across the aircraft ⁠to lift into the air – but it then uses the less expensive conventional aviation fuel to power a rear ⁠propeller to fly horizontally. The firm hopes to have its first full-size prototype conducting test flights within the next nine months, with each costing roughly the same as a civilian helicopter with hugely greater range.

While few if any of the aircraft on display at Farnborough this year have been predominantly designed through artificial intelligence, engineers there said AI processes could considerably speed both computer model testing and regulatory processes. For now, more traditional aircraft are still selling well. According to analysis from RBC Capital Markets, Airbus and Boeing between them received more than 1,200 combined orders for commercial aircraft in the first ‌half of 2026, well up from the 2022-2025 average of just under ‌1,000.

Whether that civilian boom can survive rising energy prices and disruption from international tensions is another question. Either way, the world is headed fast into uncharted waters, and that will bring the global ​aviation sector – like the rest of us – as much risk as opportunity. (Editing by Philippa Fletcher)