EBRD forecasts Ukraine's GDP will contract by 20% in 2022

Ukraine's GDP will contract by 20% in 2022 but could rise by 23% in 2023 if a ceasefire is brokered quickly, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said in a forecast issued on Friday.

The EBRD said that if a ceasefire is signed "within a couple of months", and followed quickly by a major reconstruction programme in Ukraine, it "will bring GDP by end-2023 back close to, but still below, pre-war levels."

The EBRD also said sanctions on Russia were expected to remain "for the foreseeable future," and forecast that Russia's economy would stagnate in 2023 after a sharp drop in 2022.