Brent Crude Prices Forecast: A Tumultuous 2025 Outlook Amid Geopolitical Influences

ICICI Bank projects Brent crude prices to fluctuate between USD 75-85 in early 2025, impacted by potential trade war escalations and U.S. energy policies. Prices are expected to drop to USD 65-75 later in the year due to a possible slowdown in Chinese demand and global oversupply.

In a newly released report, ICICI Bank forecasts Brent crude prices to range between USD 75 and USD 85 per barrel in the first half of 2025, driven primarily by trade tensions and the United States' energy policies under President Donald Trump. The report anticipates a decrease to USD 65-75 per barrel in the second half as Chinese demand slows.

According to ICICI Bank, Brent crude is expected to trade at around USD 74 per barrel in 2025, a slight decrease from USD 80 per barrel in 2024. Recent price rallies have been attributed to seasonal demand increases and U.S. policy actions initiated by the outgoing Biden administration.

The report suggests that while non-OPEC supply is forecasted to exceed demand, leading to a surplus in 2025, geopolitical factors, especially the Russia-Ukraine conflict, create an unpredictable environment for crude oil prices. The U.S. strategy under Trump to maximize oil and gas production and strategic reserve expansion further complicates the outlook.

(With inputs from agencies.)