Africa’s Energy Sector Gains Momentum as Global Investors Turn to the Continent

Geneva Investor Breakfast Highlights Africa’s Strategic Energy Growth and Investment Prospects.

The African Energy Chamber (AEC), the foremost advocate for Africa’s energy sector, hosted its Invest in African Energies investor breakfast in Geneva on Friday, drawing a robust assembly of European investors, financiers, and commodity traders. The event reinforced Geneva’s standing as a global hub for commodity trading while spotlighting Africa’s emerging role as a critical battleground for energy investment and market expansion.

The breakfast commenced with expert-led technical presentations from S&P Global Commodity Insights, focusing on the evolving landscape of commodity trading, downstream operations, and crude oil trading in West Africa. One of the key highlights was Nigeria’s impending transition to a net gasoline exporter, catalyzed by crude lifts from the Dangote refinery ramping up in 2025. This milestone will significantly alter Africa’s refining landscape, reducing Nigeria’s reliance on European fuel imports and reshaping regional trade flows.

Shifting Dynamics in Africa’s Refining and Fuel Supply Markets

With global refinery rationalization on the rise—particularly in North America and Europe—more than 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity is expected to shut down by 2030. These closures are paving the way for Africa to emerge as a competitive market for fuel imports, attracting interest from Middle Eastern national oil companies (NOCs). Tanya Stepanova, Associate Director at S&P Global Commodity Insights, emphasized Africa’s growing importance, stating, “Africa is becoming a very interesting market and a battleground for different regions targeting it as an export market.”

Nigeria’s Dangote refinery has already begun shifting trade dynamics, supplying jet fuel to Saudi Aramco and naphtha to Asian markets while also bolstering the regional supply network via the Lomé hub off Togo’s coast. Further refining developments in Nigeria include the approval of a new 10,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Delta State, the resumption of operations at the Warri refinery, the planned restart of the Port Harcourt refinery, and discussions surrounding the establishment of a private refinery.

Meanwhile, South Africa—sub-Saharan Africa’s largest and most mature energy market—faces an uncertain refining future. With several refinery closures in recent years, the country must decide how to secure its fuel supply, balancing potential Middle Eastern influence with trader-driven market dynamics. Reports indicate that Middle Eastern NOCs are exploring the acquisition of Shell South Africa’s downstream assets. “For South Africa, it’s not just about refining economics—there’s a strong agenda for security of supply,” Stepanova noted. “The key question is whether it will become a trader-dominated market or whether we will see a significant Middle Eastern footprint.”

LNG Prospects and the Future of African Energy Investments

Africa’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector is poised for substantial growth, with the continent competing against new LNG supplies from the U.S. that are targeting European markets. Emerging players like Mozambique are gaining traction, with ExxonMobil eyeing a Final Investment Decision (FID) for its Rovuma LNG project by 2026. Additionally, TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG project, backed by over $10 billion in investments, is expected to accelerate Africa’s LNG footprint.

“For LNG, the demand is certainly there, but these projects require long-term commitments from offtakers to materialize,” noted Verner Ayukegba, Senior Vice President at AEC. “ExxonMobil has stated that Mozambique is a key part of their global portfolio, and they are aiming for FID in 2026. The only way to drive development in Africa is through trade and investment.”

New Financial Strategies and the Role of Commodity Traders

The event also examined the evolving financial landscape of African energy investments. While many international banks have exited fossil fuel financing, a fresh wave of financing opportunities is emerging. Major energy players with strong balance sheets continue to dominate upstream exploration, yet traders are increasingly stepping in to finance production continuity through infill drilling.

“When it comes to infill drilling, traders have become key financial players, often securing financing based on existing resource bases,” Ayukegba explained. “This trend will likely intensify over the next two to four years as African oil and gas producers seek new ways to maintain production levels.”

Looking Ahead: African Energy Week 2025

The investor breakfast served as a precursor to African Energy Week (AEW) 2025: Invest in African Energies, scheduled for September 29 to October 3 in Cape Town, South Africa. AEW 2025 aims to reinforce Africa’s position as a global energy champion by attracting strategic investments and forging transformative deals that will define the continent’s energy future.

Building on the success of previous editions, AEW remains the premier platform for deal-making, energy partnerships, and capital investment across Africa’s energy sector. As Africa continues to cement its role in the global energy ecosystem, forums like AEW will be crucial in driving the continent’s sustainable development, economic growth, and energy security.

With Africa’s energy sector at a turning point, investors and industry stakeholders must stay attuned to these evolving market dynamics and emerging opportunities. As global energy shifts take shape, Africa stands at the forefront of an exciting era of transformation, innovation, and strategic investment.