March 2025 Global Air Travel Sees Modest Growth, Load Factors Decline Amid Surging Capacity

In March 2025, total global air travel demand, as measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), increased by 3.3% year-on-year compared to March 2024.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released its latest air travel performance data for March 2025, offering a nuanced picture of global passenger trends. While total air travel demand continued to grow, it was outpaced by a sharper increase in available capacity, leading to a decline in global load factors—a critical indicator of how efficiently airline seats are being filled.

In March 2025, total global air travel demand, as measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), increased by 3.3% year-on-year compared to March 2024. This marks a modest acceleration over February's 2.7% growth. However, this rise in demand lagged behind the 5.3% year-on-year increase in capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), leading to a decline in the global load factor. The average load factor dropped by 1.6 percentage points (ppt) to 80.7%, suggesting airlines are not filling as many seats as efficiently as in the previous year.

International Travel Trends

International demand posted a stronger performance than domestic markets, with RPKs growing by 4.9% in March 2025 relative to the previous year. Yet again, capacity outstripped demand with a 7.0% year-on-year increase, resulting in a load factor of 79.9%, down 1.7 ppt from March 2024.

A regional breakdown shows significant variability:

• Asia-Pacific remained the fastest-growing international market with a 9.9% increase in demand, supported by an 11.6% boost in capacity. Despite this, the load factor declined to 84.1%, down 1.3 ppt.

• European carriers experienced 4.9% growth in demand and a 6.9% rise in capacity, with a resulting load factor of 78.2% (-1.5 ppt).

• Middle Eastern airlines witnessed a 1.0% contraction in demand, with capacity growing 2.8%. The load factor dropped steeply to 74.6%, a 2.9 ppt decline—likely impacted by Ramadan’s timing, which traditionally affects travel behavior in the region.

• North America continued its downward trend for a second consecutive month, albeit with an improving trajectory. March demand fell 0.1%, a better showing compared to February's -1.5% decline. With capacity up 2.0%, the load factor fell to 83.0% (-1.8 ppt).

• Latin America saw a solid 7.7% rise in demand, but a steeper 12.1% increase in capacity resulted in a 3.3 ppt drop in load factor to 80.9%.

• African airlines recorded a 3.3% demand growth, closely matched by a 3.5% rise in capacity. Their load factor was 70.1%, almost flat with a marginal 0.2 ppt decline.

Domestic Travel: Modest Growth with Pockets of Weakness

Domestic air travel was subdued, growing only 0.9% year-on-year in March. While capacity rose by 2.5%, the load factor slipped by 1.3 ppt to 82.0%. A closer look reveals disparities among key markets:

• India and Brazil led the pack with impressive demand increases of 11.0% and 8.9%, respectively.

• Conversely, Australia and the United States—two of the world's largest domestic markets—posted demand declines of -1.2% and -1.7%, respectively. These contractions were significant enough to drag down overall domestic growth.

Industry Outlook: Watching Headwinds and Infrastructure Challenges

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, emphasized the importance of monitoring economic and geopolitical developments, particularly tariffs and inflationary pressures that could affect air travel demand. “Passenger demand grew by 3.3% year-on-year in March, a slight strengthening from the 2.7% growth reported for February. A capacity expansion of 5.3%, however, outpaced the demand expansion leading to a load factor decline from record highs to 80.7% systemwide,” said Walsh.

He also highlighted infrastructure concerns, noting that “the challenges associated with accommodating more people who need to travel—specifically alleviating supply chain problems and ensuring sufficient airport and air traffic management capacity—remain urgent.”

Despite some regional turbulence, the broader pattern suggests that global air travel is continuing to normalize post-pandemic, with growth levels stabilizing after the volatility of previous years. However, declining load factors and uneven regional performance underscore the importance of strategic capacity planning and infrastructure development.