World Bank urges people-centered strategy to secure Viet Nam’s Mekong Delta future

A new World Bank report, “Living or Leaving: Life in the Mekong Delta Region of Viet Nam,” finds that intensifying environmental and economic pressures are reshaping the Mekong Delta and threatening the livelihoods of millions. The report calls for a people-centered adaptation strategy focused on strengthened skills, modern infrastructure, and resilient, higher-value agriculture to safeguard growth in Viet Nam’s agricultural heartland.

Drawing on updated household surveys and labor-market data, the report examines how the Mekong Delta—home to more than 17 million people and responsible for more than half of Viet Nam’s rice output—can adapt to rising climate risks while supporting the country’s broader economic transformation.

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Environmental Vulnerabilities Driving Livelihood Shifts

According to the report, the Delta is already facing severe climate-related disruptions:

• Repeated droughts and saltwater intrusion since 2018

• More frequent floods

• Rising temperatures and extreme heat events

These shocks have steadily reduced farm incomes and destabilized traditional livelihoods, prompting nearly 1.7 million people to migrate over the past decade in search of more secure opportunities.

But the report finds that migration alone cannot offset economic vulnerability:

• Only 14% of households report having a migrant member

• Of these, just 58% receive remittances

• Nearly half of remittances are below 5 million VND per year, insufficient to lift families out of poverty

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Economic Weight of the Delta Is Declining

Once a powerhouse of national growth, the Delta’s economic contribution has fallen:

• Share of national GDP dropped from nearly 20% pre-2000 to 12.4% in 2024

• The region attracted only 3% of Viet Nam’s FDI inflows in 2023

These trends underscore the need for targeted policy interventions that enable the region to move up the value chain and modernize its rural economy.

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“Adaptation is no longer optional”

Mariam J. Sherman, World Bank Division Director for Viet Nam, Cambodia and Lao PDR, stressed the urgency of rethinking development strategies:

“Given the scale of environmental vulnerabilities the region is facing, the question is no longer whether adaptation is needed, but how it should be pursued. Public investment must balance protecting vital land and infrastructure with building the skills and resilience people need to pursue opportunities in an adaptive future.”

The report argues that policy must prioritize people as much as places, ensuring residents have the education, mobility, and support systems needed to adapt—whether they remain in the Delta or migrate voluntarily for better prospects.

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Five Priority Actions Recommended

To secure long-term resilience and prosperity, the report recommends:

1. Expanding skills training

Equip workers—especially youth—with capabilities for higher-value, non-farm jobs.

2. Transforming agriculture

Shift toward less labor-intensive, more profitable and climate-resilient farming, including diversified crops and modern technologies.

3. Upgrading infrastructure

Improve transport, irrigation, and digital connectivity to attract investment and reduce costs for farmers and businesses.

4. Supporting safe, voluntary migration

Ensure workers seeking opportunities elsewhere can migrate safely, affordably and with adequate protections.

5. Building adaptive social protection

Strengthen social assistance and insurance systems to help households withstand climate shocks and economic disruptions, particularly those unable or unwilling to migrate.

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A People-Centered Path Forward

The report emphasizes that protecting the Delta’s future will depend on empowering its people—not just reinforcing its landscapes. By investing in human capital, mobility, and a more resilient rural economy, Viet Nam can ensure the Mekong Delta remains a vital contributor to national prosperity.

The report was prepared with support from the Australian Government through the Australia–World Bank Strategic Partnership (ABP2).