Metal Markets Brace for Turbulence: Tighter Supplies, Surging Demand in 2026

ING's Commodities Outlook 2026 predicts metals will outperform due to demand-supply imbalances. Copper and aluminum face significant deficits, while nickel is in surplus. Iron ore prices may decline with increased supply. Environmental and regulatory factors contribute to nickel supply challenges amid steel and battery demand shifts.

In a comprehensive analysis by ING's Commodities Outlook 2026, the commodities market is set to experience substantial turbulence as metals are expected to outperform. The report underscores a looming deficit in refined copper, estimated at 600kt in 2026, attributed to burgeoning demand and operational disruptions across key mining locations.

Despite China's output nearing its self-imposed capacity cap of 45 million tonnes, the global aluminium market is forecasted to remain in deficit through 2026. Pertinently, supply limitations due to power constraints and regulatory caps pose a significant challenge to market equilibrium.

Conversely, nickel supply is expected to maintain a surplus, buoyed by Indonesia's robust production, representing a significant 60% of global output. However, environmental scrutiny and regulatory tightening may constrain growth, whereas the iron ore market faces potential price declines amidst an influx of seaborne supply and faltering demand from China's economic engines.

(With inputs from agencies.)