Brazil's Coffee Surge: Record Harvest, High Prices

Brazil's 2026 coffee harvest is forecast to grow by 17.1% to a record 66.2 million bags. Arabica and robusta outputs are set to increase due to favorable weather and technological advancements. Despite the record, global coffee prices are expected to remain high due to growing demand.

According to a new report by Brazil's national crop agency Conab, the country's coffee production in 2026 is set to reach an unprecedented high. Forecasts predict an increase of 17.1% from the previous year, totaling 66.2 million 60-kilogram bags of coffee.

The surge in production is largely due to a 20% rise in arabica coffee output, expected to hit 44.1 million bags. This growth is attributed to the 'on-year' of the bean's biennial cycle, coupled with better weather conditions and advanced farming techniques. Meanwhile, robusta coffee production is projected to increase by 6.4%, reaching 22.1 million bags.

Despite the record-breaking production levels, coffee prices are anticipated to remain elevated. The rising demand from global consumers continues to outpace supply, even with a promising harvest in Vietnam, Brazil's primary competitor. The USDA forecasts that while global coffee consumption will peak at 173.9 million bags, ending stocks will deplete for a fifth consecutive year, dropping to 20.1 million bags.