UPDATE 3-China's decarbonisation plan takes cautious steps as world backtracks on climate

China on Thursday released a new five-year plan to reduce the carbon emissions of its economy, mainly by relying on its booming renewable sector to limit coal ‌use and greenhouse gases, but some analysts viewed it as underwhelming. Under the plan, China aims to reduce its carbon intensity, or carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product, by 17% from 2026 to 2030, well short of its pledge under the Paris climate agreement of a 65% cut in that time.

The new plan did not, as international observers hoped it would, set a goal for total emissions to head lower before 2030. China's carbon intensity goal is "alarmingly lax," said Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of ‌the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), who said it would allow emissions to increase by 3% to 6% over the next five years given China's economic growth target.

CREA research previously found that China would need ‌a 23% cut over the next five years to meet its Paris commitment. Since Washington exited the Paris agreement and retreated from its climate policies last year, China has looked to fill a void in global leadership on climate and clean energy left by the world's biggest historic emitter.

During the five-year plan that ended last year, China reduced its carbon intensity by just 12%, missing its previous target of 18%. That failure and its modest new decarbonisation goal are unlikely to inspire other countries to set their own ambitious emissions-reductions targets, analysts said. "China is quickly becoming the largest emitter historically speaking, and ⁠so the ​legitimacy to claim that developed economies have to do a much ⁠larger share is kind of running out for China, so they know that they have to do more," said Nis Grunberg, lead analyst for the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Germany.

Under its new program, Beijing outlined annual targets for reaching 30 million metric tons of coal replaced by ⁠renewable energy in five years but did not impose limits on coal consumption. The country is rapidly expanding its wind and solar power capacity. POLICY SHIFT

With the new plan, Beijing has shifted focus from controlling the energy intensity of its economy to carbon intensity, returning to a framework ​it used in the past. The so-called "dual control" system will introduce industry, company and project-level carbon emissions controls, according to the five-year plan.

In 2026, China plans to cut its carbon intensity by around 3.8%, according to a report ⁠from China's top state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). China has said it expects that its carbon emissions will peak before 2030. Still, the new carbon intensity target will not be easy to achieve, said Yao Zhe, a Beijing-based policy adviser for Greenpeace East Asia, pointing to continued energy demand ⁠growth from ​Chinese manufacturing.

"The focus increasingly shifts to more challenging areas - decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors, integrating a much larger share of renewables into the power system and building a more flexible and resilient electricity system," said Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst for Ember, an energy think tank. China's carbon emissions fell 0.3% last year thanks to reductions in the transport, power, cement and metals sectors, but it is not yet clear whether emissions will go up again before peaking.

FOCUS ON RENEWABLE GROWTH, NOT TARGETS While ⁠China has fallen short of some short-term climate targets, Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute in the U.S., said renewable energy technology will help China bend its emissions curve downward.

President Xi ⁠Jinping told the United Nations in September that his country would ⁠expand wind and solar power capacity, already the world leader, six fold from 2020 levels by 2035. Based on current trends, China is on pace to exceed that target. In the next five years, China will introduce minimum quotas for renewable energy consumption, according to the NDRC, as well as measures to phase out coal-fired equipment and facilities and reach a peak ‌in coal consumption. Previously, China had set ‌out to phase down its coal use.

(This story has not been edited by Devdiscourse staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)