New Zealand Sees Drop in Violent Crime as Govt Tracks Ahead of 2029 Goal

Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith and Police Minister Mark Mitchell released the figures ahead of the Government’s next official update on its crime and social targets, originally scheduled for June.

 New Zealand’s Justice and Police Ministers have announced promising new data indicating that the country is on track to meet its long-term violent crime reduction target, with thousands fewer Kiwis falling victim to serious violent offences over the past year.

Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith and Police Minister Mark Mitchell released the figures ahead of the Government’s next official update on its crime and social targets, originally scheduled for June. The early release comes amid what they describe as significant progress in the Government’s efforts to restore law and order and improve public safety.

Significant Progress Toward 2029 Target

In March 2024, the Government announced nine key targets to tackle social issues, one of which was to reduce the number of victims of serious violent crime by 20,000 by 2029. This would equate to a total of 165,000 victims over that period.

According to the most recent New Zealand Crime and Victims Survey (NZCVS), for the 12 months leading to February 2025, the number of violent crime victims has fallen to 157,000—down from the October 2023 baseline of 185,000. That’s a reduction of 28,000 victims in under a year, already surpassing the 2029 goal by 40%.

“This is a very encouraging result and shows that our work to restore law and order is having real impact,” said Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith. “We’ve given Police and the Courts stronger tools to tackle violent crime and gang activity, and we’re seeing the results.”

Policy Changes Driving Results

The Ministers credited a series of recent policy changes for the positive shift. These include:

• Strengthening police powers to crack down on gang activity

• Reinstating a revised version of the controversial three-strikes sentencing law

• Rolling back sentence discounts, aiming to ensure more consistent consequences for serious crimes

• Scrapping Section 27 cultural background reports, which previously allowed judges to consider an offender’s upbringing as part of sentencing

“These changes signal a return to accountability in our justice system,” Goldsmith said. “There are real consequences for crime once again.”

Regional Gains: Auckland and Canterbury Lead

Police Minister Mark Mitchell highlighted regional progress as a key indicator of successful implementation on the ground. Auckland and Canterbury—two of New Zealand’s most populous regions—have seen notable declines in violent crime victimisation.

“There were 12,000 fewer victims in Auckland and 5,000 fewer in Canterbury,” Mitchell said. “That’s a direct result of the hard work by our frontline Police and Corrections teams. I want to thank our Police Commissioner, Corrections Chief Executive, and all their teams—sworn and non-sworn—for their tireless efforts.”

Mitchell acknowledged that while the trend is encouraging, there is still considerable work ahead. “We are not declaring victory,” he said. “This is an early sign that we’re heading in the right direction, but the job is far from finished.”

Early Release of Data Reflects Public Interest

The full quarterly update on all nine of the Government’s social targets is scheduled for early June. However, given the scale of the improvement in violent crime numbers, the Ministers made the decision to release this portion of the data early.

“We believe the public has a right to know that real progress is being made,” Goldsmith said. “The data is robust, but we also acknowledge it can be volatile. There’s no room for complacency.”

Labour’s Legacy Still Lingers

Despite the progress, the Government cautioned that the NZCVS reflects crime trends over a two-year period, meaning that some of the data still captures the effects of the previous Labour administration’s policies.

“It’s important to remember this survey covers a 24-month window,” Goldsmith said. “We will continue to see the delayed impact of Labour’s soft-on-crime approach filter through, even as our new policies begin to take stronger effect.”

Looking Ahead

As the Government gears up for its full update in June, attention will turn to whether similar progress is being made in other areas, such as youth offending, reoffending rates, and gang-related activity.

For now, both Ministers say the results are a clear sign that the current approach is working—and that Kiwis are beginning to feel safer as a result.

“We are committed to making New Zealand a safer place for all,” Mitchell said. “These numbers are just the beginning.”