UN Warns South Sudan on Brink as Peace Deal Unravels

“Last March, the President declared South Sudan would not return to war. To the contrary, we have seen an alarming regression,” said Yasmin Sooka, Chair of the Commission.

South Sudan’s political and military leadership is systematically dismantling the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement, exposing civilians to escalating violence and the risk of renewed civil war, the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan warned today in a stark new report to the Human Rights Council in Geneva.

The Commission said the erosion of governance and security safeguards has already resulted in widespread attacks on civilians, ethnic targeting, arbitrary detentions of opposition leaders, and potential war crimes and crimes against humanity.

“Alarming Regression” Since Pledge of No Return to War

“Last March, the President declared South Sudan would not return to war. To the contrary, we have seen an alarming regression,” said Yasmin Sooka, Chair of the Commission.

According to the report, government forces have carried out widespread and systematic attacks against civilians throughout 2025, including:

• Unlawful killings

• Indiscriminate and disproportionate aerial bombardment of civilian homes and medical facilities

• Conflict-related sexual violence

• Abduction and forcible recruitment of boys

Such actions violate the principles of distinction, proportionality and precaution under international humanitarian law and breach obligations under the Convention on the Rights of the Child and its Optional Protocol.

“Taken together, these acts may constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity under international law,” Sooka said.

Ethnic Targeting and Politicized Detentions

The Commission found that armed forces under the command of the ruling SPLM-IG party bear primary responsibility for recent attacks on civilians, with patterns of violence linked to ethnicity and perceived political affiliation.

“As attacks on Nuer civilians by government forces continue escalating, particularly in Jonglei, we see that the ethnic dimensions to renewed violence are inseparable from the politicized detentions and prosecutions of opposition leaders,” Sooka said.

In March 2025, the ruling party detained opposition members nationwide, including eight senior leaders and the First Vice President. They were charged with serious crimes in September 2025.

The Commission raised grave concerns that the detentions violate Article 9 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), which prohibits arbitrary detention, as well as Article 14 guaranteeing fair trial rights. It also cited unlawful executive interference in the judiciary.

“Credible electoral processes are unrealistic in a context where civic space is repressed, conflict rages, more than three million people are internally displaced, and key opposition leaders are arbitrarily detained during a politicized trial,” Sooka added, referring to planned elections in December 2026.

Unprecedented Airstrikes and Forced Recruitment

The report documents airstrikes at levels not seen since pre-independence wars. Conducted by the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF), with documented support from Ugandan forces, many bombings targeted areas declared “hostile” by the ruling party.

Civilian homes, hospitals and opposition-affiliated areas — predominantly inhabited by Nuer communities — were hit. Improvised bombs caused severe burns, often fatal.

“Reflecting profound abdication of core duties and obligations, the systematic bombings and forced recruitments targeting civilians have been conducted by the very armed forces responsible for citizens’ protection,” said Commissioner Barney Afako.

The Commission also documented forced recruitment operations in Juba, where boys and young men were abducted and transported north to fight. These operations were reportedly widely known, planned and authorised at senior levels.

Evidence gathered indicates violations were authorised, condoned or tolerated by senior political and military officials, engaging individual criminal responsibility, including under the doctrine of command responsibility.

Peace Framework “Systematically Dismantled”

Established in 2016, the Commission has consistently identified the 2018 Revitalized Agreement as central to stabilising South Sudan and fulfilling international human rights obligations.

However, the 2025 report concludes that the agreement is being deliberately undermined.

“In our close examination of the detention and prosecution of opposition leaders, we identified serious and extensive violations of due process,” said Commissioner Carlos Castresana Fernández.

He cited detention without charge or legal counsel for over five months, prejudicial statements by senior officials, and unexplained dismissals of chief justices and justice ministers — all pointing to executive interference.

“The unlawful deprivation of liberty warrants their immediate release,” he said.

Corruption Fuelling Conflict

The report also reiterates findings from September 2025 detailing entrenched grand corruption that diverts state revenues to elites, leaving institutions unable to provide basic services.

Since then, corruption networks have reportedly deepened, including through the politically connected Crawford Capital Ltd., further weakening governance and fuelling instability.

“Systemic impunity, economic predation, and deliberate subversion of peace agreements have been central drivers of recurrent armed conflict,” Sooka said.

Urgent International Action Needed

The Commission warned that without immediate course correction, South Sudan risks state failure, regional destabilisation and further atrocities.

Key recommendations include:

To the Government of South Sudan:

• Immediately cease bombings and forced recruitment

• End all violations of international law

• Withdraw politicised charges against SPLM/A-IO leaders

• Restore power-sharing arrangements and judicial independence

• Ensure any electoral process complies with the Revitalized Agreement

To armed forces and non-State groups:

• Cease attacks on civilians

• Guarantee humanitarian access

• Enforce accountability for abuses

To the African Union, United Nations and Member States:

• Demand compliance with the peace agreement

• Establish a credible mechanism to restore the transition

• Operationalise the Hybrid Court for South Sudan

• Fully fund humanitarian and civilian protection efforts

• Condition political support on respect for human rights obligations

“South Sudan is at a dangerous crossroads,” Afako warned.

Without urgent international pressure and domestic reform, the Commission cautioned, the country could slide back into full-scale conflict — with devastating consequences for civilians and regional stability.