El Niño Threatens 347 Million Children as Floods and Droughts Put Their Futures at Risk

Asia and the Pacific account for the largest number of children expected to experience these conditions, at 190 million, followed by East and Southern Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean, each with 41 million.

For millions of children, the approaching El Niño could mean losing access to drinking water, missing school or leaving home because floods or drought have made everyday life unsafe. The 2026–2027 event is forecast to become one of the strongest on record, with UNICEF warning that more than 347 million children across nearly 100 countries and territories live in areas expected to experience unusually wet or dry conditions between October and December 2026.

El Niño is a recurring climate pattern that warms parts of the Pacific Ocean and disrupts weather systems worldwide, changing rainfall patterns in ways that can damage crops, overwhelm communities and interrupt essential services. UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell has called for immediate action, warning that children face displacement, malnutrition, water shortages, disease outbreaks and school closures, alongside financial pressures that could make it harder for their families to cope.

Changing rainfall puts food, water and homes under pressure

Asia and the Pacific account for the largest number of children expected to experience these conditions, at 190 million, followed by East and Southern Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean, each with 41 million. The regional estimates include 22 million children in Europe and Central Asia, 20 million in the Middle East and North Africa, and 20 million in West and Central Africa, showing how widely the disruption could reach.

Children in Colombia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and the Philippines are among those expected to face drier conditions, with agricultural drought and water scarcity threatening food supplies and potentially worsening acute malnutrition and displacement. Wetter-than-normal conditions in the Greater Horn of Africa, particularly Somalia, could trigger river and flash floods, spread waterborne diseases and disrupt schooling, leaving families struggling to keep children healthy and maintain their routines.

In countries affected by crisis and conflict, including Afghanistan and Chad, another weather shock could threaten children's survival because hunger, displacement and limited access to essential services have already weakened their ability to withstand further hardship. A failed harvest or damaged water supply can deepen existing shortages, increasing the pressure on households with few resources left to absorb another emergency.

Children risk losing safety, stability and time in school

Extreme weather can expose children to dangers that extend beyond the immediate disaster, including family separation, violence, exploitation and child marriage as households lose income and support. During the 2022 Horn of Africa drought, child marriage increased by an average of 119 per cent in drought-affected areas of Ethiopia, illustrating the serious protection risks that can accompany a prolonged struggle for food and water.

Globally, 1.1 billion children, nearly half of all children, already face at least three overlapping climate-related hazards, such as drought, extreme heat or floods, which El Niño is expected to intensify. Weather-related disasters drove more than 20,000 child displacements every day between 2016 and 2023, and the coming event could force more families into sudden moves that separate children from familiar surroundings, services and support networks.

Climate-related events interrupted learning for an estimated 171 million students in 2025, a figure that could rise as more severe floods and droughts close schools and disrupt attendance. For children whose education is already fragile, repeated interruptions can increase the risk of dropping out, making an emergency's consequences last beyond the weather event itself.

Early investment can protect children before disaster strikes

Forecasts are providing months of warning, giving governments, donors and partners time to invest before needs escalate and impacts peak. UNICEF is calling for stronger climate-resilient systems, protection of essential services for children and humanitarian access to affected communities, so families can receive support before conditions become overwhelming.

Every US$1 invested in disaster risk reduction and prevention can save up to US$15 in recovery costs, according to the release. Still, less than 1 per cent of humanitarian funding currently supports anticipatory action. Directing more resources to early protection could help protect children's health, education, and safety as communities prepare for the months ahead.