Rising Heat Threatens Workers and Economies in Six Countries, ILO Studies Warn

Launched at a high-level online event on 29 October 2026, the studies examine the current and future effects of heat stress on workers, labour markets and economic output.

Rising temperatures are harming workers' health and safety, reducing productivity and putting businesses and national economies under pressure, according to six new International Labour Organization studies. The research covers Ethiopia, Ghana, Lebanon, the Maldives, Senegal and Sri Lanka, where heat exposure is already affecting jobs and livelihoods. Countries with large numbers of people working outdoors or in physically demanding occupations face particularly serious risks as temperatures rise.

Launched at a high-level online event on 29 October 2026, the studies examine the current and future effects of heat stress on workers, labour markets and economic output. Agriculture, construction, fisheries and transport are among the sectors facing substantial exposure because much of their work involves outdoor activity and physical effort. The scale of harm varies according to each country's climate, employment patterns, economic structure and capacity to adapt.

The ILO commissioned the studies with support from the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the Vulnerable 20 Finance Ministers, with funding through their Joint Multi-Donor Fund. Their findings identify measures to protect workers and livelihoods, sustain productivity and strengthen resilience, including workplace safety protections, social protection and climate-resilient economic planning. Lead author Andreas Floris said every industry and workplace stands to benefit from adapting to heat stress.

Heat exposure is already causing deaths and economic losses

Globally, 2.4 billion workers are exposed to excessive heat, which is responsible for nearly 19,000 work-related deaths each year. Heat stress is projected to cause working-time losses equivalent to 80 million full-time jobs by 2030, underlining the scale of the threat to livelihoods and production. Across the six countries studied, heat is already generating significant economic losses, with climate change expected to deepen the damage over time, particularly under high-emissions scenarios.

Job and GDP losses could grow sharply by 2040 and 2060

Even under a low-emissions pathway, projected losses by 2040 reach about 2,400 full-time equivalent jobs in the Maldives, 21,700 in Lebanon and 129,000 in Senegal. The corresponding estimates are 145,000 in Sri Lanka, 550,000 in Ghana and 1.78 million in Ethiopia, showing the substantial exposure across different economies. Annual GDP losses could reach US$575.5 million in the Maldives, US$2.6 billion in Lebanon, US$10.5 billion in Senegal, US$23.2 billion in Ghana, US$26 billion in Sri Lanka and US$33.3 billion in Ethiopia.

Under high-emissions scenarios, the projected damage becomes considerably greater by 2060, placing additional pressure on employment and national income. Full-time equivalent job losses could reach 5,500–6,100 in the Maldives and 5–6 million in Ethiopia. Annual GDP losses could rise to US$1.6–1.7 billion in the Maldives and US$79.4–310.3 billion in Ethiopia, illustrating the range of possible economic consequences.

Worker protection and dialogue are central to adaptation

The studies highlight occupational safety and health measures, social protection and climate-resilient planning as practical responses to the growing risks. Marlene Attallah, Deputy Director General at Lebanon's Ministry of Labour, described protection from heat as an investment in workers' health, productivity and working conditions. Launch participants stressed that governments, employers, workers and affected communities must help shape responses so that policies reflect their needs and experience.

Alpha Dia, a professor and researcher with Senegal's National Employers' Council, described social dialogue as a key adaptation tool that can protect workers and strengthen companies' resilience. Ella Frankel of the International Union of Food, Agricultural, Hotel, Restaurant, Catering, Tobacco and Allied Workers' Associations stressed that workers should never have to choose between their health and livelihood. The ILO's just transition guidelines provide a framework for addressing the employment and social consequences of environmental change, supporting decent work and adaptation that safeguards health, livelihoods and productivity.