NDA eyes 14 LS seats; INDIA bloc to bank on tribal sentiments: SWOT analysis of J'Khand parties

The BJP is focusing on winning all 14 seats in Jharkhand by highlighting corruption charges against opposition leaders. The party is banking on PM Modi's mass appeal and development projects in the state. However, internal rumblings and lack of coordination could be weaknesses. The JMM-Congress alliance is playing the victim card over the arrest of Hemant Soren and implementing welfare schemes to gain popularity. However, internal rumblings within the alliance and the defection of Congress MP Geeta Kora to the BJP are weaknesses. Both parties face threats from aggressive campaigning and infighting, which could impact their chances in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

The BJP, which has dominated the last three Lok Sabha polls in Jharkhand, is eyeing all the 14 seats in the tribal-dominated state. The party plans to take on the JMM over corruption charges against jailed former chief minister Hemant Soren and other opposition leaders. The JMM-led coalition with the Congress is banking on tribal sentiments to win the polls. Polling in Jharkhand will be held in four phases on May 13, 20, 25 and June 1, the Election Commission said on Saturday.

Here is a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis of BJP: STRENGTHS: * The mass appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who had claimed in Jharkhand on March 1 that the NDA will win over 400 seats in the Lok Sabha polls, banking on the ‘Modi guarantee’, as he hit out at the JMM-led ruling dispensation for corruption, dynastic governance and extortion.

*The BJP is counting on its campaign against corruption, including ED and CBI raids on former Jharkhand CM and JMM executive president Hemant Soren and ruling alliance partner Congress' leaders, law and order issues, crimes against women and alleged demographic changes, among others.

*The BJP is looking to cash in on its plank of development, unveiling projects worth thousands of crores in the state. *Congress' lone MP from Jharkhand's Singhbhum (ST) constituency, Geeta Kora, joined the saffron party WEAKNESSES: *Voters could be influenced by JMM-led coalition, which has put the blame on the BJP for the recent political crisis in Jharkhand following the arrest of former CM Hemant Soren in a money laundering case linked to an alleged land scam. His wife Kalpana has formally joined the JMM.

*BJP’s internal rumblings and lack of coordination among leaders after the sudden removal of former state president Deepak Prakash, and handing the charge to former CM Babulal Marandi.

OPPORTUNITIES: *A weak opponent could present the BJP with a chance to win a majority of the LS seats. THREATS: * Six of the 14 LS seats are reserved for SC and ST candidates, and the opposition INDIA bloc may play the victim card over the arrest of former CM Hemant Soren, who belongs to a tribal community.

*Aggressive campaigning and outreach programmes by JMM leaders since the state’s Foundation Day on November 15, 2023.

*Infighting within the BJP and fissures might play spoilsport for the party in the state. It has also dropped sitting MP Jayant Sinha, the son of former finance minister Yashwant Sinha from poll race.

* Lok Sabha ticket to new entrant and ex-Congress MP Geeta Kora might result in internal bickerings.

* The India bloc comprising mainly the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and the Congress alliance banks on ''tribal sentiments'' specially after arrest of former Jharkhand Minister Hemant Soren. Soren, has been vocal throughout alleging that the saffron party was all out to destabilise his democratically elected government by unleashing central forces like Enforcement Directorate and the CBI.

Here is a SWOT analysis of JMM-Congress STRENGTHS: * The arrest of Hemant Soren by the ED is set to arouse tribal sentiments as JMM-Congress is playing the victim card with tribal voters largely believing that the former CM was arrested on false charges. The ruling alliance has been accusing BJP for his arrest. * The ruling alliance, comprising the JMM-Congress, has implemented several welfare schemes aimed at benefiting the people directly, such as Aapki Yojna, Aapki Sarkar, AapkeDwar, universal pension, sports and education schemes, Abua Awas, and food security schemes. These initiatives could enhance their popularity among voters.

* The JMM-led coalition government passed a resolution in the Jharkhand assembly in November 2020 seeking inclusion of Sarna as a separate religion in the Census and sought Centre's intervention for recognition of a separate Sarna Religious Code.

* INDIA bloc partners will try to corner BJP on the 1932-land records based domicile policy as the state government passed the 1932-Khatian based domicile policy that is pending with the Governor.

WEAKNESSES: * The lone Congress MP from the state Geeta Kora, wife of former Jharkhand Chief Minister Madhu Koda, from Singhbhum (ST), embraced the saffron party just ahead of the Lok Sabha elections and the BJP has fielded her from the same seat.

* There are internal rumblings among INDIA bloc members which is yet to finalise the seat sharing among partners.

* Fissures in Congress and JMM were evident after formation of Champai Soren government. Eight of the 12 disgruntled MLAs had rushed to Delhi demanding new faces in the Jharkhand cabinet. Infighting in the ruling JMM family was also evident when daughter-in-law Sita Soren opposed Kalpana Soren's name in place of Hemant Soren as CM.

OPPORTUNITIES: * If JMM fields Kalpana Soren who joined the party recently, she could garner sympathy votes.

* Rajmahal seat in JMM stronghold Santhal Pargana. Party's Vijay Kumar Hansdak won the seat by a margin of 99,195 votes in 2019.

THREATS: * Aggressive campaigning by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP chief JP Nadda, Home Minister Amit Shah and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh who made corruption in the ruling alliance their main poll plank. * Infighting within INDIA bloc over seat sharing.